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12803 Firbrae Dr
D- Composite 36.68
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +10.7/15.0
  • Appreciation +4.5/10.0
  • Schools +4.4/10.0
  • Cash flow +4.3/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.7/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0

$400,000

12803 Firbrae Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346
4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market
Built 2020 Good condition 7,819 sqft lot Garage $137/sqft · 7% below area Est $430k · 7% under $104/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to 12803 Firbrae Drive in the beautiful community of Balmoral. Upon entry you are greeted with a light filled study with French doors. Off the garage entry there is a beautiful mud room area perfect for backpacks and shoes. Spacious half bath tucked off the main entry. Low maintenance flooring in the common areas provide plenty of pet friendly areas. Beamed ceiling with speakers in the living and dining room. Quartz counter tops and 42 inch cabinets with designer tile and finishes. The primary features a sitting area surrounded by windows. The primary bathroom features a vessel tub with large walk-in shower and closet. Everywhere you look you will find luxury finishes and upgrades.

Key facts

  • Mud room area
  • 42 inch cabinets
  • Beamed ceiling

Tags

LIGHT FILLED STUDYMUD ROOM AREALOW MAINTENANCE FLOORINGBEAMED CEILINGQUARTZ COUNTER TOPS42 INCH CABINETS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (31.5% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (22.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $274k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 3.9% in Atascocita — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 897 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 11329% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $273,937 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.77%
Cap rate
3.10%
Cash-on-cash
-11.42%
DSCR
0.49
GRM
10.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$430,318
List price
$400,000
Delta
-7.05%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
12818 Firbrae Dr 0.05mi 4/3.5 2,826 (-3%) 1mo $425,000 $150 91
12810 Raemoir 0.10mi 4/3.5 2,772 (-5%) 3mo $429,990 $155 84
15626 Beltie Dr 0.09mi 4/3.5 2,727 (-6%) 4mo $369,850 $136 82
15611 Countesswells Dr 0.33mi 5/3.5 (+1) 2,979 (+2%) 2mo $425,000 $143 74
15666 Countesswells Dr 0.39mi 4/3.5 2,714 (-7%) 2mo $420,000 $155 69
12526 Sabine Point Dr 0.60mi 4/3.0 2,880 (-1%) 2mo $379,900 $132 66
15430 Paxton Woods Dr 0.57mi 4/3.0 2,884 (-1%) 4mo $395,000 $137 66
15639 Scolty Reach Ln 0.11mi 4/3.0 2,490 (-15%) 4mo $411,000 $165 65
16823 Hammon Woods Dr 0.64mi 4/3.0 2,746 (-6%) 1mo $415,000 $151 58
15214 Monal Trie Dr 0.56mi 4/2.5 2,734 (-6%) 2mo $369,900 $135 58
16811 Lantana Valley Pl Unit P 0.59mi 4/4.0 2,607 (-11%) 0mo $424,999 $163 52
11942 Walden Pines Rd 0.73mi 4/3.0 3,179 (+9%) 1mo $569,900 $179 48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-22.8%
Equity multiple
0.06×
Total profit
$-105,473
Equity at exit
$97,436
10-year hold
IRR
-19.9%
Equity multiple
-0.59×
Total profit
$-177,846
Equity at exit
$103,067

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
78 active · 41 under contract
Months of supply
7.4 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$399,995 ($153/sqft)
Median days on market
51 d
This list price
50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77346

Home prices YoY
-0.4%
Rents YoY
0.1%
Active inventory
897
Price-to-rent
10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,093 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,098
Tax from tax record
$1,141 /mo · $13,697/yr
Insurance
$167
HOA
$104
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$650
Net cashflow
$-1,066

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,443
Max offer price $273,937
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-839 -5% $-953 +0% $-1,066 +5% $-1,179 +10% $-1,292
Rent -10% $-1,310 -5% $-1,188 +0% $-1,066 +5% $-944 +10% $-821
Rate -1.0pp $-864 -0.5pp $-964 base $-1,066 +0.5pp $-1,170 +1.0pp $-1,275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$100,000
Closing costs
$12,000
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 17 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
15646 Scolty Reach Ln Unit Labs Atascocita, TX 4.0 3.5 3238 $3,700 $1.14 30d 1 0.09mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2646 $2,696 $1.02 42d 1 0.27mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2512 $2,466 $0.98 7d 1 0.31mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2620 $3,150 $1.20 52d 1 0.35mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2620 $3,350 $1.28 93d 1 0.35mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2634 $2,581 $0.98 21d 1 0.52mi
11927 Fletching Stone Ln Humble, TX 4.0 3.5 2817 $3,200 $1.14 35d 1 0.71mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2476 $3,100 $1.25 93d 1 0.85mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX 4.0 3.0 2631 $5,000 $1.90 50d 1 1.00mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX 4.0 3.0 2631 $6,325 $2.40 0d 1 1.00mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX 4.0 3.0 2663 $2,456 $0.92 19d 1 1.01mi
12923 Palm Leaf Ct Houston, TX 4.0 2.5 2158 $1,901 $0.88 7d 1 1.03mi
12218 Sunlight Peak Ln Humble, TX 3.0 2.0 2218 $2,251 $1.01 42d 1 1.04mi
15126 Sequoia Meadow Ct Humble, TX 4.0 3.5 2671 $2,595 $0.97 32d 1 1.06mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX 3.0 2.5 2358 $2,136 $0.91 42d 1 1.26mi
11347 Needlerock Ct Unit 1310533P Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 3239 $9,388 $2.90 93d 1 1.36mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX 4.0 2.0 2450 $5,000 $2.04 7d 1 1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info
Lease considered
HOA & community
Association: BalmoralAnnual association fee of $1,250Community pool

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (2 cars)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyFaces southBuilt in 2020Slab foundation
Construction
Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roof
Exterior features
Covered patioDeckPatioBack yard fenceSprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric ovenGas cooktopGarbage disposalMicrowaveQuartz countertops
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on first floorFour additional bedrooms on second floor (total 5 bedrooms)
Flooring
CarpetEngineered hardwoodTile
Bathrooms
Three full bathroomsOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features
Dry barEntrance foyerHigh ceilingsQuartz countersWindow treatmentsCeiling fan(s)Insulated doorsLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsElectric fireplace
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $400,000 Active 70 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $400,000 Active 68 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $400,000 Active 67 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $400,000 Active 66 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 65 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 62 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $400,000 Active 60 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $400,000 Active 59 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $400,000 Active 57 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $400,000 Active 55 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $400,000 Active 54 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $400,000 Active 53 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $400,000 Active 52 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $400,000 Active 51 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $400,000 Active 49 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $400,000 Active 48 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $400,000 Active 47 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $400,000 Active 46 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $400,000 Active 45 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $400,000 Active 44 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $400,000 Active 43 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $400,000 Active 42 DOM
  23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $400,000 Active 40 DOM
  24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $400,000 Active 38 DOM
  25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $400,000 Active 37 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $400,000 Active 36 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $400,000 Active 35 DOM
  28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 34 DOM
  29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 33 DOM
  30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 32 DOM
  31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $400,000 Active 31 DOM
  32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $400,000 Active 30 DOM
  33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $400,000 Active 29 DOM
  34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $400,000 Active 28 DOM
  35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $400,000 Active 27 DOM
  36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $400,000 Active 25 DOM
  37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $400,000 Active 23 DOM
  38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $400,000 Active 22 DOM
  39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $400,000 Active 19 DOM
  40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $400,000 Active 18 DOM
  41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $400,000 Active 17 DOM
  42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $400,000 Active 16 DOM
  43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $400,000 Active 14 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $400,000 Active 13 DOM
  45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $400,000 Active 10 DOM
  46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $400,000 Active 9 DOM
  47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $400,000 Active 8 DOM
  48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $400,000 Active 5 DOM
  49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 4 DOM
  50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$13,697 · $1,141/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$13,697 · $1,141/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$37,122
− Mortgage interest
−$22,406
− Property taxes
−$13,697
− Insurance
−$2,000
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,970
− Management
−$2,970
− HOA
−$1,248
− Depreciation
−$11,636
Taxable loss
−$19,805
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$4,753
After-tax cash flow
$-8,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,580–$43,740 screening

This home is in excellent condition with recent updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and modern lighting to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves lighting
  • Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Woodcreek Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Summer Creek H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Humble ISD
NCES district ID
4823910
Math proficiency
38% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
44% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income
$83,946
Composite
38.55/100
National rank
#4171
State rank
#262 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

Score
70/100
State rank
#346
US rank
#7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Atascocita, TX
County
Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population
79,538
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
79,538
Household income
$122,241
Rent vs Own
18.3% rent · 81.7% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
5,571,493 people
By 2030
6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040
7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050
8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075
10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100
12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-99.2% since first listed
14 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-01 Listed for Rent $3,500 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-30 Listed $400,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-10-02 Rental Removed $3,500 HARMLS
  • 2024-09-30 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-09-23 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-09-23 Listed $440,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-09-13 Listed for Rent $3,500 HARMLS
  • 2024-09-13 Relisted HARMLS
  • 2024-07-31 Pending HARMLS
  • 2024-07-23 Pending HARMLS
  • 2024-07-13 Listed $440,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-07-12 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-06-30 Price Changed $440,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-04-17 Listed $450,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+23.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,697 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…