1731 Circulo Bahia · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,701 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2025 0.44 ac lot $165/sqft · 5% below area Est $295k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning 1701 sq ft home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfectly set on a 0.44 acre lot. Enter inside to discover a custom kitchen with gorgeous granite countertops, a large island, and elegant custom cabinetry. The primary suite offers comfort and functionality with a double closet and beautifully tiles bathroom featuring designer finishes. Each bathroom showcases tasteful tilework and modern fixtures, adding style and sophistication throughout. Enjoy the beauty of Rio Rico living with room to expand, relax, and make this home your own.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Custom cabinetry
• Large center island

Tags

• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• DUAL CLOSETS
• CUSTOM TILE FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-463 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $280k implies a 1767% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,316 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,321
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: 0.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1722 Camino Jacinto	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-5%)	3mo	$306,000	$189	81
1728 Círculo Alameda	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+5%)	11mo	$302,000	$169	76
1733 Circulo Alameda	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-7%)	3mo	$284,000	$180	76
1732 Faro Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-1%)	1mo	$288,000	$171	75
1725 Camino Jacinto	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-9%)	12mo	$274,900	$177	67
62 Circulo Cortez	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-7%)	1mo	$260,000	$164	64
1731 Faro Ct	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-3%)	2mo	$330,000	$200	62
23 Avenida Pastor	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,607 (-6%)	15mo	$340,000	$212	60
1729 Faro Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-8%)	3mo	$320,000	$205	57
1735 Faro Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-3%)	15mo	$329,000	$199	52
1725 Faro Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+9%)	5mo	$335,000	$181	50
1739 Circulo Agua Blanca	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-13%)	15mo	$262,000	$178	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $123,027
• Equity at exit: $252,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $385,546
• Equity at exit: $543,978

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $212,986

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	11d	1	0.18mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	43d	1	0.18mi
65 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	1d	1	0.34mi
1691 Gamo Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	14d	1	0.60mi
73 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1879	$1,750	$0.93	1d	1	0.72mi
1731 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	1d	1	0.74mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	1d	1	1.06mi
1808 Cajeme Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	1725	$1,850	$1.07	1d	1	1.13mi
125 Alemania Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	10d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on marketlisting id $280,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $298,000 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,000 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,000 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,000 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-03-28
    price $298,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 1701 sq ft home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfectly set on a 0.44 acre lot. Enter inside to discover a custom kitchen with gorgeous granite countertops, a large island, and elegant custom cabinetry. The primary suite offers comfort and functionality with a double closet and beautifully tiles bathroom featuring designer finishes. Each bathroom showcases tasteful tilework and modern fixtures, adding style and sophistication throughout. Enjoy the beauty of Rio Rico living with room to expand, relax, and make this home your own.

14. 2026-02-27
    price $300,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 1701 sq ft home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfectly set on a 0.44 acre lot. Enter inside to discover a custom kitchen with gorgeous granite countertops, a large island, and elegant custom cabinetry. The primary suite offers comfort and functionality with a double closet and beautifully tiles bathroom featuring designer finishes. Each bathroom showcases tasteful tilework and modern fixtures, adding style and sophistication throughout. Enjoy the beauty of Rio Rico living with room to expand, relax, and make this home your own.

15. 2025-11-13
    price $325,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 1701 sq ft home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfectly set on a 0.44 acre lot. Enter inside to discover a custom kitchen with gorgeous granite countertops, a large island, and elegant custom cabinetry. The primary suite offers comfort and functionality with a double closet and beautifully tiles bathroom featuring designer finishes. Each bathroom showcases tasteful tilework and modern fixtures, adding style and sophistication throughout. Enjoy the beauty of Rio Rico living with room to expand, relax, and make this home your own.

16. 2025-10-19
    listed $345,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 1701 sq ft home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfectly set on a 0.44 acre lot. Enter inside to discover a custom kitchen with gorgeous granite countertops, a large island, and elegant custom cabinetry. The primary suite offers comfort and functionality with a double closet and beautifully tiles bathroom featuring designer finishes. Each bathroom showcases tasteful tilework and modern fixtures, adding style and sophistication throughout. Enjoy the beauty of Rio Rico living with room to expand, relax, and make this home your own.

17. 2025-10-09
    historical
18. 2025-08-21
    price $345,000
19. 2025-08-02
    listed $355,000 Active
20. 2025-08-02
    historical
21. 2024-10-04
    listed $355,000 Active
22. 2024-04-29
    soldstatus $15,000
23. 2021-07-08
    soldstatus $8,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$10,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,556
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3305.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $298,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $300,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-19 Listed $345,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $345,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-02 Listed $355,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-10-04 Listed $355,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $8,750 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $127 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.