5571 W Courthouse Rd · Crewe, VA 23930

$126,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 1954 4.54 ac lot Est $126k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,070 sq ft of living space on a peaceful 4.54-acre lot. The main level features three bedrooms, while two additional bedrooms are located upstairs, providing flexible living options for family, guests, or a home office. With plenty of room to roam and endless potential, this property is ideal for buyers looking to add their personal touch. A great opportunity for investors or homeowners ready to bring this home back to life with some TLC. This home is located within mins of 460. HUD Case# 541-779281 IE (Insured Escrow), Subject to Appraisal. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are Sold “As-Is&rdquo

Key facts

• 4.54 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#389 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nottoway County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #109 of 131 in VA (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Nottoway County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $871 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nottoway County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,660 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.46%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,270
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5571 W Courthouse Rd	0.00mi	5/2.0	2,070 (0%)	1mo	$126,000	$61	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $991
• Equity at exit: $18,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $28,304
• Equity at exit: $10,894

Cash invested: $35,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23930

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$661
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $126,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,500
• Closing costs: $3,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   price $126,000
3. 2026-01-02
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$440/yr (+$37/mo · 74.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,058
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,336
• − Management: −$1,336
• − Depreciation: −$3,665
• Taxable income: $2,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$500
• After-tax cash flow: $3,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nottoway County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102790
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,125
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4153
• State rank: #109 of 131 in VA

Livability — Crewe

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #15947

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,258

Population outlook (Nottoway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,190 people
• By 2030: 14,867 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 13,993 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 12,924 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 10,416 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 7,281 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 33% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nottoway

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 60.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.50%
• Current HPI: 182.7855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $126,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $140,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.