3509 Lisa Ln · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$237,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1972 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Hurricane shutters
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• HURRICANE SHUTTERS
• FRUIT TREES
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-3
• HOA & community: No association fees; Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Off-street parking; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone service available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stone construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built using durable materials
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Chain link fencing; Shed(s) and storage; Mature landscaping; Asphalt/paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 135

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oscar J. Pope Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 410 students, 65% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,928 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-54,482
• Equity at exit: $35,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-77,096
• Equity at exit: $20,535

Cash invested: $66,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,012/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,019

Max offer price $202,581

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,375
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	14d	1	0.28mi
1803 Venus St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,645	$1.31	3d	1	0.69mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	23d	1	0.93mi
2919 Maine Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,275	$1.12	14d	1	0.99mi
521 Skyline Dr E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	3d	1	1.16mi
2524 Kiwanis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	12d	1	1.26mi
2402 Kiwanis Ave Unit 1258725P Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$3,262	$2.73	14d	1	1.39mi
1922 Crystal Grove Dr #1922 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,547	$1.53	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,500 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,500 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,500 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,500 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,500 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,500 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,500 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,500 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,500 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $237,500 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,500 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,500 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,500 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-02-02
    status Active
15. 2026-02-02
    price $237,500
16. 2025-12-23
    status Pending
17. 2025-12-09
    status Active
18. 2025-11-22
    status Pending
19. 2025-10-03
    status Active
20. 2025-10-03
    price $249,000
21. 2025-08-09
    status Pending
22. 2025-07-21
    price $229,900
23. 2025-05-16
    listed $249,900 Active
24. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus $305,000
25. 2022-06-24
    soldstatus $305,000 Closed 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

26. 2022-05-24
    status Pending 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

27. 2022-05-24
    price $305,000 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

28. 2022-05-11
    status Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

29. 2022-04-25
    status Pending 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

30. 2022-04-19
    status Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

31. 2022-03-10
    status Pending 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

32. 2022-03-10
    price $300,000 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

33. 2022-03-07
    listed $289,000 Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Take a look at this 3/2 on a large 0.31 acre lot. Plenty of grass in the front as well as in the back. Backyard is fenced and it comes with two sheds for your tools and toys. House has hurricane shutters stacked up for the windows and ready for you to put up in case you need them. Fruit trees are almost ready to bloom. Very well maintained house. Master has wood flooring and the rest of the house is either vinyl or tile. New roof 2022. Make your offer before it's gone.

34. 2019-08-22
    soldstatus $159,011
35. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus $159,000 Sold 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    "MUST SEE" Take a Look at this 3/2 on a large well landscaped lot in a fantastic community. At this price it will be hard to find anything better with all new flooring, paint, light fixtures and ceiling fans. Ready to move into and Priced To Sell FAST. Schedule a showing today before its gone. ..

36. 2019-05-26
    status Pending 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    "MUST SEE" Take a Look at this 3/2 on a large well landscaped lot in a fantastic community. At this price it will be hard to find anything better with all new flooring, paint, light fixtures and ceiling fans. Ready to move into and Priced To Sell FAST. Schedule a showing today before its gone. ..

37. 2019-05-22
    listed $159,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    "MUST SEE" Take a Look at this 3/2 on a large well landscaped lot in a fantastic community. At this price it will be hard to find anything better with all new flooring, paint, light fixtures and ceiling fans. Ready to move into and Priced To Sell FAST. Schedule a showing today before its gone. ..

38. 2019-04-24
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,012 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,012 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,304
• − Property taxes: −$3,012
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable loss: −$6,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+137.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $237,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-24 Sold (MLS) $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-24 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-10 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-07 Listed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $159,011 Public Records
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-22 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,012 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.