28 Thetford Ln · Royalton, VT 05032

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1987 1.64 ac lot Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

On owned land 3 bedroom two bath mobile home on a concrete pad. 1.64 acres surveyed land. owner will consider owner financing with first mortgage. owner can help with qualifying. occupancy at closing. home has stand and seam metal roof, 2 sheds. estimated payment is 1,544.00 / month depending on rate, down payment etc.

Key facts

• Concrete pad
• 1.64 acres
• 2 sheds

Tags

• OWNED LAND
• CONCRETE PAD
• 1.64 ACRES
• STAND AND SEAM METAL ROOF
• 2 SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Thetford Ln mobile park

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Drilled well (shared); 1000-gallon concrete septic with leach field (private); 100 amp electric service; DSL available; Fiber optic internet available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Existing construction; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Built in 1987; Insulation: cellulose and fiberglass batt; Standing seam roof
• Exterior features: Country setting; Gravel driveway; Shared road frontage; Property is surveyed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate floors; Vinyl floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Hot air heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $190k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $177,500 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.75%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,964
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Wilder Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	14mo	$195,000	$211	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $60,734
• Equity at exit: $108,470

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $169,085
• Equity at exit: $187,917

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05032

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Pinney Ln Bethel, VT	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,775	$1.61	44d	1	0.04mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $189,900 Active 320-char remark
17. 2007-08-28
    soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,238 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,370/yr (+$114/mo · 157.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$88
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $3,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Royalton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,879

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Current HPI: 321.7936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+106.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $189,900 PrimeMLS
• 2007-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $868 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.