1227 Varuna Dr · Forked River, NJ 08731

$984,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1995 5,662 sqft lot $370/sqft · at area comps Est $1012k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

60 feet of waterfront. A private balcony overlooking the lagoon. Dock space for your boat. Wide lagoon with minutes-to-the-bay access that serious boaters actually care about. Located in one of Forked River's most sought-after waterfront communities, 1227 Varuna Drive delivers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and over 2,600 square feet designed around life on the water. A dramatic two-story foyer opens to a spacious living area with soaring tray ceilings, flowing into an open kitchen and dining space with sightlines straight to the lagoon. A main-level bedroom adds flexibility for guests, in-laws, or single-floor living. Upstairs, the primary suite features private balcony access overlooking the water -- the kind of view that makes every morning worth waking up for. Out back: 60 feet of bulkhead under 10 years old, dock space ready for your boat, and a backyard built for the life you've been planning. Barnegat Bay minutes away. Everything in place. The boat. The dock. The view. The life. It's all here at 1227 Varuna Drive, Forked River NJ 08731.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $985k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($90k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $985k).
• Recommended offer: $955k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $276k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($955k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; list at $985k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $955,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.45%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,011,687
• List price: $984,900
• Delta: -2.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1030 Montauk Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,617 (-2%)	9mo	$1,050,000	$401	73
709 Richmond Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,700 (+1%)	1mo	$800,000	$296	61
816 Bowline Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,272 (-15%)	1mo	$873,750	$385	58
953 Capstan Dr	0.32mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,900 (+9%)	8mo	$1,040,000	$359	57
1266 Capstan Dr	0.07mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,370 (-11%)	17mo	$860,000	$363	55
830 Spar Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,857 (+7%)	12mo	$999,995	$350	54
821 Spar Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,860 (+7%)	21mo	$1,055,000	$369	53
1204 Capstan Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,410 (-10%)	22mo	$819,000	$340	48
1018 Neosho Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	3,000 (+13%)	19mo	$955,000	$318	46
908 Boxer Dr	0.41mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,524 (-5%)	24mo	$1,075,000	$426	45
819 Forepeak Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,038 (+14%)	18mo	$999,500	$329	38
826 Leeward Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	3,052 (+15%)	18mo	$1,180,000	$387	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $317,828
• Equity at exit: $146,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $892,587
• Equity at exit: $85,156

Cash invested: $275,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,165
• Tax from tax record: −$982 /mo · $11,782/yr
• Insurance: −$410
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,847
• Net cashflow: $7,490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,840

Max offer price $984,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,047	-5% $7,769	+0% $7,490	+5% $7,211	+10% $6,932
Rent	-10% $6,043	-5% $6,766	+0% $7,490	+5% $8,214	+10% $8,937
Rate	-1.0pp $7,986	-0.5pp $7,740	base $7,490	+0.5pp $7,235	+1.0pp $6,975

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $246,225
• Closing costs: $29,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Bunnell St Lanoka Harbor, NJ	5.0	3.5	3012	$20,000	$6.64	16d	1	1.29mi
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	2d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $984,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $984,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $984,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $984,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $984,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $984,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $984,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $984,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $984,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $984,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $984,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $984,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $984,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    listed $984,900 Active 1058-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    60 feet of waterfront. A private balcony overlooking the lagoon. Dock space for your boat. Wide lagoon with minutes-to-the-bay access that serious boaters actually care about. Located in one of Forked River's most sought-after waterfront communities, 1227 Varuna Drive delivers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and over 2,600 square feet designed around life on the water. A dramatic two-story foyer opens to a spacious living area with soaring tray ceilings, flowing into an open kitchen and dining space with sightlines straight to the lagoon. A main-level bedroom adds flexibility for guests, in-laws, or single-floor living. Upstairs, the primary suite features private balcony access overlooking the water -- the kind of view that makes every morning worth waking up for. Out back: 60 feet of bulkhead under 10 years old, dock space ready for your boat, and a backyard built for the life you've been planning. Barnegat Bay minutes away. Everything in place. The boat. The dock. The view. The life. It's all here at 1227 Varuna Drive, Forked River NJ 08731.

15. 2026-04-21
    price $984,900 1058-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    60 feet of waterfront. A private balcony overlooking the lagoon. Dock space for your boat. Wide lagoon with minutes-to-the-bay access that serious boaters actually care about. Located in one of Forked River's most sought-after waterfront communities, 1227 Varuna Drive delivers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and over 2,600 square feet designed around life on the water. A dramatic two-story foyer opens to a spacious living area with soaring tray ceilings, flowing into an open kitchen and dining space with sightlines straight to the lagoon. A main-level bedroom adds flexibility for guests, in-laws, or single-floor living. Upstairs, the primary suite features private balcony access overlooking the water -- the kind of view that makes every morning worth waking up for. Out back: 60 feet of bulkhead under 10 years old, dock space ready for your boat, and a backyard built for the life you've been planning. Barnegat Bay minutes away. Everything in place. The boat. The dock. The view. The life. It's all here at 1227 Varuna Drive, Forked River NJ 08731.

16. 2026-04-20
    historical $974,900 1058-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    60 feet of waterfront. A private balcony overlooking the lagoon. Dock space for your boat. Wide lagoon with minutes-to-the-bay access that serious boaters actually care about. Located in one of Forked River's most sought-after waterfront communities, 1227 Varuna Drive delivers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and over 2,600 square feet designed around life on the water. A dramatic two-story foyer opens to a spacious living area with soaring tray ceilings, flowing into an open kitchen and dining space with sightlines straight to the lagoon. A main-level bedroom adds flexibility for guests, in-laws, or single-floor living. Upstairs, the primary suite features private balcony access overlooking the water -- the kind of view that makes every morning worth waking up for. Out back: 60 feet of bulkhead under 10 years old, dock space ready for your boat, and a backyard built for the life you've been planning. Barnegat Bay minutes away. Everything in place. The boat. The dock. The view. The life. It's all here at 1227 Varuna Drive, Forked River NJ 08731.

17. 2017-08-01
    soldstatus $450,000
18. 2017-07-14
    soldstatus $450,000 Sold 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This 4 BR, 3-1/2 bath, 2-car garage contemporary waterfront home is located Lacey's Riviera Beach section, just around the lagoon to the bay. 60 foot on the water, vinyl bulkhead. Wide open 2-story Great room. 1st floor BR and 2nd floor master BR suite. Multiple decks to enjoy the waterviews.

19. 2017-07-14
    soldstatus $450,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This 4 BR, 3-1/2 bath, 2-car garage contemporary waterfront home is located Lacey's Riviera Beach section, just around the lagoon to the bay. 60 foot on the water, vinyl bulkhead. Wide open 2-story Great room. 1st floor BR and 2nd floor master BR suite. Multiple decks to enjoy the waterviews.

20. 2017-05-31
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This 4 BR, 3-1/2 bath, 2-car garage contemporary waterfront home is located Lacey's Riviera Beach section, just around the lagoon to the bay. 60 foot on the water, vinyl bulkhead. Wide open 2-story Great room. 1st floor BR and 2nd floor master BR suite. Multiple decks to enjoy the waterviews.

21. 2017-05-31
    status Pending 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This 4 BR, 3-1/2 bath, 2-car garage contemporary waterfront home is located Lacey's Riviera Beach section, just around the lagoon to the bay. 60 foot on the water, vinyl bulkhead. Wide open 2-story Great room. 1st floor BR and 2nd floor master BR suite. Multiple decks to enjoy the waterviews.

22. 2017-05-18
    listed $465,000 Active
23. 2017-05-16
    listed $465,000 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This 4 BR, 3-1/2 bath, 2-car garage contemporary waterfront home is located Lacey's Riviera Beach section, just around the lagoon to the bay. 60 foot on the water, vinyl bulkhead. Wide open 2-story Great room. 1st floor BR and 2nd floor master BR suite. Multiple decks to enjoy the waterviews.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,782 · $982/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,153 · $1,513/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,371/yr (+$531/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $219,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,170
• − Property taxes: −$11,782
• − Insurance: −$10,043
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,588
• − Management: −$17,588
• − Depreciation: −$28,652
• Taxable income: $79,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,967
• After-tax cash flow: $70,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+111.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $984,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $984,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $974,900 MOMLS
• 2017-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-14 Sold (MLS) $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-14 Sold (MLS) $450,000 MOMLS
• 2017-05-31 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-31 Pending — MOMLS
• 2017-05-18 Listed $465,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-16 Listed $465,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,782 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.