2127 Oahu Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1978 3,771 sqft lot Est $146k · 39% under $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Big Price Reduction!! Great deal waiting for you in the gated, 55+ community of Lake Conley, in Holiday, Florida. You own the land here and have low +/- $70 a month HOA dues, no land lease. This is a 1,152 square foot 2-bedroom, 2 bath home. This pet-friendly park will allow with one dog, or one cat, no more than 25lbs. Service animals and Emotional Support animals require current documentation. No aggressive breeds. The home has a 2 carport, screened porch, storm shutters, shed with laundry and sink, a newer water heater, ceiling fans and comes furnished. The dining room has a built-in hutch, with a mostly original kitchen, but has a newer stainless-steel dishwasher and tiled backsplash. T

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pet friendly park
• Built in hutch

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PET FRIENDLY PARK
• SCREENED PORCH
• STORM SHUTTERS
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• BUILT IN HUTCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, Manufactured Home; Body type: Double Wide; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 75 (0.09 acres); Water access to brackish water/lake
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $70); Association requires approval; Association fee includes pool, recreational facilities, grounds maintenance, maintenance, and private road; Association name: Joe Peck; Community features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, pool, golf carts allowed, buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats OK, dogs OK, breed/size/number limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Roof over; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Private maintained asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.39%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,304
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3835 Lomi Lomi Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,190 (+3%)	2mo	$131,000	$110	92
2033 Maui Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	79
3839 Lomi Lomi Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,212 (+5%)	14mo	$175,000	$144	78
1934 Shady Cv	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,108 (-4%)	2mo	$90,000	$81	78
2032 Waterview Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	1mo	$165,400	$157	77
2127 Kona Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	9mo	$137,000	$127	76
2101 Hilo Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+15%)	1mo	$173,000	$131	71
2133 Oahu Dr #140	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	10mo	$184,900	$143	70
4004 Reggie Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+10%)	3mo	$125,000	$98	69
2011 Melody Dr	0.44mi	2/1.5	1,116 (-3%)	6mo	$75,000	$67	68
2115 Waterview Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	7mo	$165,000	$127	65
3544 Tiki Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	4mo	$110,000	$109	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $25,855
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $70,415
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $801

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,673	$1.65	12d	1	0.18mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	14d	1	0.20mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	0.26mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	24d	1	0.31mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.33mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.35mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	0.35mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	24d	1	0.40mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	20d	1	0.40mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	4d	1	0.43mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	24d	1	0.43mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	24d	1	0.43mi
3536 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	24d	1	0.46mi
3405 Wilson Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	24d	1	0.50mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.52mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	24d	1	0.52mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.54mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	14d	1	0.54mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	4d	1	0.65mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	0.71mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	4d	1	0.71mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	2d	13	0.75mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.78mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	21d	1	0.83mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.83mi
3052 Salton St Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,600	$1.50	24d	1	0.88mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	1d	1	0.89mi
3623 Holiday Lake Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,525	$1.52	24d	1	0.94mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	4d	1	0.97mi
3531 Rosewater Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,795	$1.98	24d	1	1.00mi
2814 Jacob Crossing Ln Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1444	$1,995	$1.38	24d	1	1.01mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	4d	1	1.01mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	4d	1	1.02mi
3838 Staysail Ln Unit 3838 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,500	$1.35	24d	1	1.02mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	17d	1	1.03mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	1.03mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	24d	1	1.05mi
3530 Oxford Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,495	$1.38	21d	1	1.06mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	4d	1	1.09mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	24d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $89,900
15. 2026-03-01
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 42% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $6,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $6,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.