531 Canal Dr · Onalaska, TX 77364

$144,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 127 Days on market

Built 2023 5,000 sqft lot $92/sqft · 31% below area Est $211k · 31% under $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($657/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $558 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-444 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,124
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -31.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Canary St	0.42mi	3/— (-1)	1,568 (0%)	9mo	$164,900	$105	68
271 Key Largo Loop	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-5%)	6mo	$429,900	$290	54
240 Antilles Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (-9%)	9mo	$260,000	$182	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,781
• Equity at exit: $39,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $18,948
• Equity at exit: $46,201

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77364

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,174/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $144,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $144,900
18. 2026-03-17
    price $147,000
19. 2026-03-05
    price $150,000
20. 2026-02-12
    listed $165,000 Active
21. 2022-05-17
    soldstatus
22. 2022-05-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,174
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$1,726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 193.4748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $147,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $149 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.