3109 Summer Hill Pl #109 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$40,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Condo · 193 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition $85/sqft · 23% below area Est $52k · 23% under $327/mo HOA · 23% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently remodeled 1BR/1BA condo in Fairfield Bay’s Summerhill Place. Approx. 470 SF with an open living/kitchen layout. Move-in ready and perfect as an investment, vacation getaway, or short-term rental. Enjoy Fairfield Bay’s resort amenities including golf, tennis, pools, trails, marina, and more. Agents see remarks

Key facts

• Tennis
• Golf
• Resort amenities

Tags

• REMODELED CONDO
• OPEN LIVING KITCHEN LAYOUT
• RESORT AMENITIES
• GOLF
• TENNIS
• POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $86 of equity ($277 loan paydown + $-191 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.97%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,000
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -23.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $30,842
• Equity at exit: $10,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.62×
• Total profit: $74,102
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$327
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $764

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $541	-5% $527	+0% $513	+5% $499	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $401	-5% $457	+0% $513	+5% $569	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $533	-0.5pp $523	base $513	+0.5pp $503	+1.0pp $492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $327 · $3,924/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-01-16
    price $40,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Recently remodeled 1BR/1BA condo in Fairfield Bay’s Summerhill Place. Approx. 470 SF with an open living/kitchen layout. Move-in ready and perfect as an investment, vacation getaway, or short-term rental. Enjoy Fairfield Bay’s resort amenities including golf, tennis, pools, trails, marina, and more. Agents see remarks

19. 2025-12-05
    listed $49,900 New Listing 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Recently remodeled 1BR/1BA condo in Fairfield Bay’s Summerhill Place. Approx. 470 SF with an open living/kitchen layout. Move-in ready and perfect as an investment, vacation getaway, or short-term rental. Enjoy Fairfield Bay’s resort amenities including golf, tennis, pools, trails, marina, and more. Agents see remarks

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − HOA: −$3,924
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $6,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,468
• After-tax cash flow: $4,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1BR/1BA condo requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Painting, updating fixtures, and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen countertops — Worn appearance suggests minor repairs needed.
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Basic fixtures indicate minor updates needed.
• Moderate exterior siding — Wear and tear suggests moderate repairs needed.
• Minor interior walls/paint — Faded paint indicates minor touch-ups needed.
• Moderate landscaping — Overgrown areas and lack of curb appeal suggest moderate landscaping improvements needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating fixtures — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting exterior space.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes spaces and improves functionality for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · Worn appearance suggests minor repairs needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Basic fixtures indicate minor updates needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · Wear and tear suggests moderate repairs needed.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls/paint · Faded paint indicates minor touch-ups needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · Overgrown areas and lack of curb appeal suggest moderate landscaping improvements needed.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$7,500–39,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating fixtures — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting exterior space. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes spaces and improves functionality for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $40,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $49,900 CARMLS