600 S Dennison Rd #29 · Tehachapi, CA 93561

$154,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1987 26 ac lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $160k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Mountain Aire Estates a desirable 55+ gated community offering comfort, safety, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle in the heart of Tehachapi. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home and 1,344 sq ft. Thoughtfully refreshed, the interior features a new stove, and other newer appliances, updated flooring, a spacious kitchen with a large center island, and abundant storage throughoutperfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The plumbing recently was replaced with PEX, throughout the home. Step outside to enjoy a private, low-maintenance yard designed for relaxation, along with two storage sheds. A covered carport provides convenient parking for two vehicles. Residents will enjoy a well-maintained, gated community tailored for active Senior living. Please note: this is an owner-occupied community, and all prospective occupants are required to complete an application and interview process prior to purchase.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large center island
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPDATED FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• PRIVATE LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tehachapi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,093 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Tehachapi Unified (town): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #285 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 654 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.31%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,000
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -3.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
600 S Dennison Rd #13	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (-4%)	3mo	$139,900	$109	85
600 S Dennison Rd #62 Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,231 (-8%)	3mo	$160,000	$130	84
600 S Dennison Rd #112	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	7mo	$154,000	$106	76
600 S Dennison Rd #50	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	24mo	$175,000	$140	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $13,148
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $44,715
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93561

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,421/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49500 Alan Ave Tehachapi, CA	3.0	2.0	936	$2,200	$2.35	3d	1	0.56mi
933 Clearview St Tehachapi, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,350	$2.08	11d	1	0.88mi
933 Clearview St Tehachapi, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,350	$2.08	23d	1	0.88mi
1431 Cimarron Ct Unit 2 Tehachapi, CA	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	3d	1	1.37mi
458 Sherwood Pl Tehachapi, CA	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,300	$1.67	10d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 977-char remark

   Show marketing remark (977 chars)

   Welcome to Mountain Aire Estates a desirable 55+ gated community offering comfort, safety, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle in the heart of Tehachapi. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home and 1,344 sq ft. Thoughtfully refreshed, the interior features a new stove, and other newer appliances, updated flooring, a spacious kitchen with a large center island, and abundant storage throughoutperfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The plumbing recently was replaced with PEX, throughout the home. Step outside to enjoy a private, low-maintenance yard designed for relaxation, along with two storage sheds. A covered carport provides convenient parking for two vehicles. Residents will enjoy a well-maintained, gated community tailored for active Senior living. Please note: this is an owner-occupied community, and all prospective occupants are required to complete an application and interview process prior to purchase.

2. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 977-char remark

   Show marketing remark (977 chars)

   Welcome to Mountain Aire Estates a desirable 55+ gated community offering comfort, safety, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle in the heart of Tehachapi. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home and 1,344 sq ft. Thoughtfully refreshed, the interior features a new stove, and other newer appliances, updated flooring, a spacious kitchen with a large center island, and abundant storage throughoutperfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The plumbing recently was replaced with PEX, throughout the home. Step outside to enjoy a private, low-maintenance yard designed for relaxation, along with two storage sheds. A covered carport provides convenient parking for two vehicles. Residents will enjoy a well-maintained, gated community tailored for active Senior living. Please note: this is an owner-occupied community, and all prospective occupants are required to complete an application and interview process prior to purchase.

3. 2026-04-07
   listed $154,900 Active 977-char remark

   Show marketing remark (977 chars)

   Welcome to Mountain Aire Estates a desirable 55+ gated community offering comfort, safety, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle in the heart of Tehachapi. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home and 1,344 sq ft. Thoughtfully refreshed, the interior features a new stove, and other newer appliances, updated flooring, a spacious kitchen with a large center island, and abundant storage throughoutperfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The plumbing recently was replaced with PEX, throughout the home. Step outside to enjoy a private, low-maintenance yard designed for relaxation, along with two storage sheds. A covered carport provides convenient parking for two vehicles. Residents will enjoy a well-maintained, gated community tailored for active Senior living. Please note: this is an owner-occupied community, and all prospective occupants are required to complete an application and interview process prior to purchase.

4. 2026-04-07
   listed $154,900 Active 977-char remark

   Show marketing remark (977 chars)

   Welcome to Mountain Aire Estates a desirable 55+ gated community offering comfort, safety, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle in the heart of Tehachapi. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home and 1,344 sq ft. Thoughtfully refreshed, the interior features a new stove, and other newer appliances, updated flooring, a spacious kitchen with a large center island, and abundant storage throughoutperfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The plumbing recently was replaced with PEX, throughout the home. Step outside to enjoy a private, low-maintenance yard designed for relaxation, along with two storage sheds. A covered carport provides convenient parking for two vehicles. Residents will enjoy a well-maintained, gated community tailored for active Senior living. Please note: this is an owner-occupied community, and all prospective occupants are required to complete an application and interview process prior to purchase.

5. 2025-06-12
   price $176,500
6. 2025-05-15
   price $182,500
7. 2015-03-27
   historical
8. 2009-08-19
   listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,421
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $6,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $6,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tehachapi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,230
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #6497
• State rank: #285 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tehachapi

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1093
• US rank: #25419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tehachapi, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 31,175
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,175
• Household income: $87,357
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 568.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.70%
• Current HPI: 371.6546
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+384.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $154,900 GEMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $154,900 AVMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $176,500 AVMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $182,500 AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2009-08-19 Listed $32,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,421 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.