3476 Pelican St · Pinehurst, TX 77630

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1954 Est $151k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! Take a look at this wonderful property. This Ranch style home has a perfect sized living room to entertain guests, a beautiful granite countertop kitchen with loads of cabinet space, and a Den for a second living / entertaining area or a nice cozy office for those who need a workspace at home. The hallway leads to the a gorgeous bathroom and 3 well-sized bedrooms. Imagine spending time in this well shaded backyard with plenty of room to add a trampoline, a bbq pit for the patio or even a swimming pool, for those hot summer days. This home has the curb-appeal and the numerous renovations and upgrades make it modern and ready to move in.

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Stunning kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH STYLE HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• RENOVATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence (Residential)
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Publicly maintained road; Storage structure

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-479/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,438 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,678
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3476 Pelican St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,522 (0%)	21mo	$150,000	$99	83
29 E Harding Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+3%)	7mo	$201,000	$128	77
62 W Harding Cir	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,710 (+12%)	12mo	$159,900	$94	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,439
• Equity at exit: $54,670

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $47,687
• Equity at exit: $72,715

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,741/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $152,843

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $5	+0% $-40	+5% $-85	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-95	+0% $-40	+5% $15	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $1	base $-40	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	15d	7	0.34mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	15d	27	0.76mi
7b Concord St Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,450	$1.20	15d	1	0.79mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 315TWNHME Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,040	$0.86	23d	1	0.85mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 401 Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,725	$1.01	23d	1	0.85mi
3615 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,275	$1.01	45d	1	0.87mi
1120 28th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,500	$1.15	45d	1	1.12mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	45d	1	1.19mi
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	45d	1	1.22mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	15d	12	1.25mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	45d	1	1.26mi
306 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1529	$1,195	$0.78	23d	1	1.26mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	45d	1	1.27mi
107 Dahlia St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $159,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,741
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,329
• − Management: −$1,329
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,195
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $169,900 BBOR
• 2024-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-03 Coming Soon $150,000 HARMLS
• 2011-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,741 · +28.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.