138 Harness Rd · New Tazewell, TN 37825

$239,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1962 10,018 sqft lot Est $229k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, lake access and VERY functional, A-Frame home with roomy yard. Bedroom on both main level and upper level. Loft area offers additional sleeping space. Roomy closets, pantry, great laundry and catch all room. Carport in place and there is room for a garage or additional outbuilding. Fiber optic available at road. Well established lake access community with fun walking or golf cart trail to the lake. 3 premier marinas within less than 1.5 to 2.5 miles from this property. 24,444 acres of Chuck Swan Wildlife management area 5.5 miles up the road! Home is on city water and there is a well in place also. Unrestricted, friendly community. 20 minutes to retail in either Maynardville or Tazewell. Hospital 12 miles away in Tazewell. Knoxville 40 minutes. Sevierville Gatlinburg area an hour +/-!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New siding
• New hvac

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• PLUMBING WITH PEX LINES
• FULL WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM
• METAL ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (2 spaces) on the main level
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Not attached (detached property)
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Building area approximately 1,028 (per tax records)
• Exterior features: Vinyl windows; Level lot; Country setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric) with ceiling heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Drapes on the windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#32 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County (rural): math 14% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #127 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sharps Chapel Elementary (math 34% / reading 24%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 125 students, 0% FRL); H Maynard Middle School (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #223 of 333 statewide, top 68%, 656 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,791 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,244
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Mcnerling Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+3%)	2mo	$235,000	$223	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $119,077
• Equity at exit: $216,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $359,845
• Equity at exit: $466,073

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37825

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $213,529

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-99	+0% $-182	+5% $-265	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-256	+0% $-182	+5% $-108	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-121	base $-182	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $239,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $239,900 Active
18. 2024-01-30
    soldstatus $175,000
19. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming, lake access and VERY functional, A-Frame home with roomy yard. Bedroom on both main level and upper level. Loft area offers additional sleeping space. Roomy closets, pantry, great laundry and catch all room. Carport in place and there is room for a garage or additional outbuilding. Fiber optic available at road. Well established lake access community with fun walking or golf cart trail to the lake. 3 premier marinas within less than 1.5 to 2.5 miles from this property. 24,444 acres of Chuck Swan Wildlife management area 5.5 miles up the road! Home is on city water and there is a well in place also. Unrestricted, friendly community. 20 minutes to retail in either Maynardville or Tazewell. Hospital 12 miles away in Tazewell. Knoxville 40 minutes. Sevierville Gatlinburg area an hour +/-!

20. 2023-12-18
    historical Pending - Continue to Show - Inspection 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming, lake access and VERY functional, A-Frame home with roomy yard. Bedroom on both main level and upper level. Loft area offers additional sleeping space. Roomy closets, pantry, great laundry and catch all room. Carport in place and there is room for a garage or additional outbuilding. Fiber optic available at road. Well established lake access community with fun walking or golf cart trail to the lake. 3 premier marinas within less than 1.5 to 2.5 miles from this property. 24,444 acres of Chuck Swan Wildlife management area 5.5 miles up the road! Home is on city water and there is a well in place also. Unrestricted, friendly community. 20 minutes to retail in either Maynardville or Tazewell. Hospital 12 miles away in Tazewell. Knoxville 40 minutes. Sevierville Gatlinburg area an hour +/-!

21. 2023-11-30
    listed $175,000 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming, lake access and VERY functional, A-Frame home with roomy yard. Bedroom on both main level and upper level. Loft area offers additional sleeping space. Roomy closets, pantry, great laundry and catch all room. Carport in place and there is room for a garage or additional outbuilding. Fiber optic available at road. Well established lake access community with fun walking or golf cart trail to the lake. 3 premier marinas within less than 1.5 to 2.5 miles from this property. 24,444 acres of Chuck Swan Wildlife management area 5.5 miles up the road! Home is on city water and there is a well in place also. Unrestricted, friendly community. 20 minutes to retail in either Maynardville or Tazewell. Hospital 12 miles away in Tazewell. Knoxville 40 minutes. Sevierville Gatlinburg area an hour +/-!

22. 2018-10-04
    soldstatus $69,500
23. 2018-10-01
    soldstatus $69,500 Closed 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Cute as a button and move in ready! This adorable A-frame cottage has a large deck for relaxing while enjoying your favorite beverage, a fenced yard and a storage building for your tools or seasonal gear. Located close to a public boat launch (on Hwy 33) as well as a marina and campground (Lakeview Marina). A new, chamber style septic system was installed in 2016. The home is on a well but city water is available and can be tapped into for a fee. Must see to appreciate!!!

24. 2018-09-07
    historical Pending - Continue to Show 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Cute as a button and move in ready! This adorable A-frame cottage has a large deck for relaxing while enjoying your favorite beverage, a fenced yard and a storage building for your tools or seasonal gear. Located close to a public boat launch (on Hwy 33) as well as a marina and campground (Lakeview Marina). A new, chamber style septic system was installed in 2016. The home is on a well but city water is available and can be tapped into for a fee. Must see to appreciate!!!

25. 2018-06-13
    listed $74,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Cute as a button and move in ready! This adorable A-frame cottage has a large deck for relaxing while enjoying your favorite beverage, a fenced yard and a storage building for your tools or seasonal gear. Located close to a public boat launch (on Hwy 33) as well as a marina and campground (Lakeview Marina). A new, chamber style septic system was installed in 2016. The home is on a well but city water is available and can be tapped into for a fee. Must see to appreciate!!!

26. 2018-04-15
    historical
27. 2016-10-15
    listed $95,000 Active
28. 2016-10-14
    price $89,900
29. 2016-10-14
    price $79,000
30. 2010-06-18
    listed $89,500
31. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $65,000
32. 2002-06-03
    soldstatus $55,500
33. 1989-10-18
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$6,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $-654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 4704290
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,598
• Composite: 13.62/100
• National rank: #9507
• State rank: #127 of 139 in TN

Livability — New Tazewell

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #5821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,583

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,073 people
• By 2030: 18,888 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 18,090 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 16,693 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 12,894 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 8,564 · -55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.2) · D 14.0% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.9pp toward R · 2008: -41.2pp · 2024: -71.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.2 2020: R+68.4 2016: R+64.7 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+41.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.68%
• Current HPI: 237.5616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+1099.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $239,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-26 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2023-12-18 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2023-11-30 Listed $175,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 2018-10-01 Sold (MLS) $69,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-09-07 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2018-06-13 Listed $74,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-04-15 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2016-10-15 Listed $95,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2016-10-14 Price Changed $79,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2016-10-14 Price Changed $89,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2010-06-18 Listed $89,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 1989-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $478 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.