419 Pine Valley Dr · Warner Robins, GA 31088

$205,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,137 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1962 0.78 ac lot $96/sqft · at area comps Est $209k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A one owner home that begs for loving attention. Priced to sell at $69,900. This 5 bedroom, 2.5 bath home is situated on a . 78 acre corner lot with fenced yard, approx. 2137 sqft. , hardwood floors, workshop and much more. Move in and update as you please. Sold as is. Call today to preview your new home. Verify schools with BOE.

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Multi/split levels
• Construction: Wood siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot in a subdivision (Miller Hills Estate)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 538 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins Middle School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #237 of 470 statewide, top 51%, 813 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins High School (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #322 of 424 statewide, top 76%, 1,816 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $205k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,925 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.90%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,489
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -2.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Kay Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,156 (+1%)	20mo	$245,000	$114	62
102 Stanley Ter	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,206 (+3%)	11mo	$240,000	$109	60
515 Kimberly Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,144 (+0%)	2mo	$236,600	$110	59
208 Randall Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,217 (+4%)	23mo	$220,000	$99	55
104 Terrell St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-7%)	10mo	$140,000	$70	50
406 Granada Ter	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,413 (+13%)	21mo	$245,500	$102	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-20
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $34,416
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31088

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Edna Pl Warner Robins, GA	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,850	$0.96	43d	1	1.40mi
501 Pinecrest Dr Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $205,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $205,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $205,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $205,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   listed $205,000 Active 742-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,282/yr (+$107/mo · 212.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $3,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$873
• After-tax cash flow: $5,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner Robins, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 58,585
• Household income: $83,082
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 32% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.75%
• Current HPI: 219.8261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+242.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — CGMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $205,000 CGMLS
• 2013-02-20 Sold (MLS) $63,500 CGMLS
• 2012-10-08 Listed $59,900 CGMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $604 · -38.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.