1009 22nd St · Bay City, MI 48708

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,379 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1897 4,792 sqft lot Est $150k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-Bedroom Home with Space, Storage & Value! Offering an exceptional amount of living space at an affordable price. The main-floor bedroom is currently being used as a home office, providing flexibility to fit your lifestyle needs. The home's layout flows beautifully, featuring two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom on the second floor. With 2 full bathrooms and an additional half bath in the basement, there's plenty of convenience for family and guests alike. You'll appreciate the many extras, including a fully fenced backyard perfect for pets, a newer furnace, central air conditioning for those warm summer days, and abundant storage space throughout the full basement. Conveniently located with easy access to downtown Bay City. Schedule your showing today and see all this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Main-floor bedroom
• Home office

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR BEDROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NEWER FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• ABUNDANT STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-a-half level home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 150 (about 0.11 acres); No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.6% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 395 students, 93% FRL); Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 44% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $110k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.58%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,311
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 19th St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,439 (+4%)	2mo	$95,700	$67	83
1707 S Monroe St	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,390 (+1%)	2mo	$151,000	$109	68
414 S Jackson St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+9%)	2mo	$109,900	$73	64
1611 S Grant St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+3%)	2mo	$112,500	$79	62
318 Fraser St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+10%)	0mo	$155,000	$103	58
1615 S Jackson St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+10%)	4mo	$179,900	$119	53
814 S Sherman St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,206 (-12%)	6mo	$147,000	$122	53
907 Michigan Ave	0.50mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,252 (-9%)	4mo	$150,000	$120	52
509 11th St	0.69mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (-4%)	5mo	$54,100	$41	50
1808 S Farragut St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+9%)	1mo	$210,000	$140	49
1507 S Van Buren St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+14%)	6mo	$141,000	$90	43
501 S McLellan St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-15%)	4mo	$153,000	$130	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,151
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $18,315
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,462/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $942

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $277	+0% $246	+5% $215	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $196	+0% $246	+5% $295	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $274	base $246	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	46d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $109,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   remarks 695-char remark
4. 2026-06-19
   listed $109,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,462
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $1,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $2,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+46.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-18 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-01 Sold (MLS) $73,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-03-08 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,462 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.