5216 Orchard Ave · Wanakah, NY 14075

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 815 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1940 3,850 sqft lot Est $186k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5216 Orchard Avenue - a rustic, lodge inspired home situated near the Lake Erie waterfront, with beach access just a short walk away! This property, currently used as a single-family residence with year-round use, offers endless possibilities: could easily transition to seasonal housing or a short-term rental opportunity. This ranch provides two bedrooms, the first highlights a gorgeous vaulted ceiling, new tile floor, closet with built-ins and enough room for a dressing area or home office set-up. The second bedroom features original wood flooring and great closet space. Eat-in kitchen is solid, featuring beautiful wood floors, sturdy cabinets and counte

Key facts

• Finished attic
• Heated garage
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• VAULTED CEILING
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FINISHED ATTIC
• HEATED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($118/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cloverbank Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 549 students, 33% FRL); Frontier Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 1,071 students, 34% FRL); Frontier Senior High School (math 97% / reading 95%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,352 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $141,730 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,820
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5245 Orchard Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	920 (+13%)	4mo	$140,000	$152	72
2697 Riverton Ave	0.23mi	2/1.5	910 (+12%)	1mo	$180,000	$198	67
5083 Stewart Pkwy	0.43mi	2/1.0	900 (+10%)	5mo	$205,000	$228	58
2783 Cloverbank Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+12%)	22mo	$223,000	$245	39
5039 Morgan Pkwy	0.70mi	2/1.0	744 (-9%)	23mo	$200,000	$269	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,870
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,266
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,116/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $57	+0% $10	+5% $-37	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-46	+0% $10	+5% $66	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $52	base $10	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5327 Rogers Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,202	$1.50	3d	1	1.25mi
5510 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,082	$1.88	3d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$335/yr (+$28/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,116
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wanakah

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #8972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wanakah, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $164,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,116 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.