306 Lord St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$97,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,978 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1905 4,000 sqft lot $49/sqft · 40% below area Est $161k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Investment special! Solid two family home in Dunkirk NY. Lower apartment has good tenants. Upper is open. Off-street parking. Minutes away from shopping, Lake Erie and the thruway. Just 50 minutes to Buffalo and 45 minutes to Erie PA. Seller is also selling 316 Lord St in Dunkirk and 241 Lincoln Ave in Dunkirk. Let's make a deal!

Key facts

• Two family home
• Off-street parking
• 4,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO FAMILY HOME
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• MINUTES AWAY FROM SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $435/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $97k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,270 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.41%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,532
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: -39.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 E Talcott St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (-2%)	5mo	$80,000	$41	72
438 Hoyt St	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,809 (-8%)	4mo	$130,000	$72	70
123 Ruggles St	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,146 (+8%)	7mo	$87,000	$41	64
546 S Roberts Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,230 (+13%)	10mo	$105,000	$47	55
503 S Roberts Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	20mo	$60,000	$34	53
706 Main St	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,099 (+6%)	18mo	$88,000	$42	49
522 Park Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,052 (+4%)	20mo	$98,500	$48	44
37 E 6th St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,203 (+11%)	1mo	$37,000	$17	41
77 E 7th St	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,230 (+13%)	21mo	$130,000	$58	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $77,377
• Equity at exit: $54,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $186,310
• Equity at exit: $93,830

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,560/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 51%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,960
Total (2 units)			$1,960

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $97,000 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $97,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $97,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $97,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $97,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $97,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Investment special! Solid two family home in Dunkirk NY. Lower apartment has good tenants. Upper is open. Off-street parking. Minutes away from shopping, Lake Erie and the thruway. Just 50 minutes to Buffalo and 45 minutes to Erie PA. Seller is also selling 316 Lord St in Dunkirk and 241 Lincoln Ave in Dunkirk. Let's make a deal!

11. 2026-04-06
    price $98,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Investment special! Solid two family home in Dunkirk NY. Lower apartment has good tenants. Upper is open. Off-street parking. Minutes away from shopping, Lake Erie and the thruway. Just 50 minutes to Buffalo and 45 minutes to Erie PA. Seller is also selling 316 Lord St in Dunkirk and 241 Lincoln Ave in Dunkirk. Let's make a deal!

12. 2026-03-12
    listed $99,000 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Investment special! Solid two family home in Dunkirk NY. Lower apartment has good tenants. Upper is open. Off-street parking. Minutes away from shopping, Lake Erie and the thruway. Just 50 minutes to Buffalo and 45 minutes to Erie PA. Seller is also selling 316 Lord St in Dunkirk and 241 Lincoln Ave in Dunkirk. Let's make a deal!

13. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $59,900 Closed Sale or Rented 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to 306 Lord st, conveniently located in beautiful Dunkirk NY, just minutes from Lake Erie and under an hour from Buffalo NY and Erie PA. This investor's dream is a 2 family house located in Dunkirk's historic fourth ward. It features two 2 bedroom apartments, currently unoccupied, upper and lower. The downstairs has laundry hook ups and the basement is also equipped. There's also a small backyard with a shed. Showings begin immediately and there's an open house Tuesday August 23rd from 4-6pm.

14. 2022-09-06
    status Pending Sale 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to 306 Lord st, conveniently located in beautiful Dunkirk NY, just minutes from Lake Erie and under an hour from Buffalo NY and Erie PA. This investor's dream is a 2 family house located in Dunkirk's historic fourth ward. It features two 2 bedroom apartments, currently unoccupied, upper and lower. The downstairs has laundry hook ups and the basement is also equipped. There's also a small backyard with a shed. Showings begin immediately and there's an open house Tuesday August 23rd from 4-6pm.

15. 2022-09-02
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to 306 Lord st, conveniently located in beautiful Dunkirk NY, just minutes from Lake Erie and under an hour from Buffalo NY and Erie PA. This investor's dream is a 2 family house located in Dunkirk's historic fourth ward. It features two 2 bedroom apartments, currently unoccupied, upper and lower. The downstairs has laundry hook ups and the basement is also equipped. There's also a small backyard with a shed. Showings begin immediately and there's an open house Tuesday August 23rd from 4-6pm.

16. 2022-08-26
    status Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to 306 Lord st, conveniently located in beautiful Dunkirk NY, just minutes from Lake Erie and under an hour from Buffalo NY and Erie PA. This investor's dream is a 2 family house located in Dunkirk's historic fourth ward. It features two 2 bedroom apartments, currently unoccupied, upper and lower. The downstairs has laundry hook ups and the basement is also equipped. There's also a small backyard with a shed. Showings begin immediately and there's an open house Tuesday August 23rd from 4-6pm.

17. 2022-08-26
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to 306 Lord st, conveniently located in beautiful Dunkirk NY, just minutes from Lake Erie and under an hour from Buffalo NY and Erie PA. This investor's dream is a 2 family house located in Dunkirk's historic fourth ward. It features two 2 bedroom apartments, currently unoccupied, upper and lower. The downstairs has laundry hook ups and the basement is also equipped. There's also a small backyard with a shed. Showings begin immediately and there's an open house Tuesday August 23rd from 4-6pm.

18. 2022-08-17
    listed $59,900 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to 306 Lord st, conveniently located in beautiful Dunkirk NY, just minutes from Lake Erie and under an hour from Buffalo NY and Erie PA. This investor's dream is a 2 family house located in Dunkirk's historic fourth ward. It features two 2 bedroom apartments, currently unoccupied, upper and lower. The downstairs has laundry hook ups and the basement is also equipped. There's also a small backyard with a shed. Showings begin immediately and there's an open house Tuesday August 23rd from 4-6pm.

19. 1996-10-15
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,560 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,560
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $9,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,270
• After-tax cash flow: $8,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+223.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $97,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $98,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-09-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-09-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-26 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-17 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 1996-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,560 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.