269 N Winchester Rd #2 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$27,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 223 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $50k · 45% under ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Updated 3-Bedroom Home with Mountain Views in 55+ Community Move right in and start enjoying Arizona living! This stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been refreshed inside and out. Step onto the spacious covered deck and enter through the energy-efficient Pella dual-pane sliding door into an inviting open-concept living area with laminate flooring and freshly painted paneling. The bright kitchen features a gas stove, ample storage, and a seamless flow for entertaining. A split floor plan provides privacy, with the primary suite separate from the guest rooms. Convenient indoor laundry includes built-in cabinets. Recent updates include a freshly painted exterior, roof recoat (11

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Gas stove
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS COVERED DECK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• AMPLE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in a community with shared amenities
• HOA & community: Land lease ($615 monthly); Association maintains grounds; Community pool; Community laundry; Tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank / septic connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof with reflective coating; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric heating; Floor furnace; Wall furnace
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Breakfast bar; Full bath in primary bedroom; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 60.2% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $825 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 60.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 192.45%
• DSCR: 9.56
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,920
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 N Winchester Rd #66	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (+9%)	1mo	$55,000	$65	72
1050 E Broadway Ave #10	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (0%)	10mo	$23,000	$30	54
1050 E Broadway Ave #39	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (+4%)	8mo	$35,000	$44	53
1432 S Havasupai Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (+4%)	15mo	$230,000	$288	50
925 N Plaza Dr #5	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (-6%)	12mo	$53,000	$74	45
925 N Plaza Dr #24	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	684 (-11%)	9mo	$18,500	$27	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.31×
• Total profit: $71,665
• Equity at exit: $4,100

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.95×
• Total profit: $153,590
• Equity at exit: $2,378

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $1,235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $241

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,254	-5% $1,244	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,225	+10% $1,216
Rent	-10% $1,092	-5% $1,164	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,306	+10% $1,377
Rate	-1.0pp $1,249	-0.5pp $1,242	base $1,235	+0.5pp $1,228	+1.0pp $1,221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
695 E Superstition Blvd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,220	$2.26	2d	13	0.27mi
111 S Outpost Rd Unit 4 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	775	$1,175	$1.52	24d	1	0.28mi
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1010	$1,900	$1.88	25d	3	0.79mi
452 E 10th Ave Unit 104 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	783	$1,000	$1.28	22d	1	0.84mi
975 S Royal Palm Rd Apache Junction, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	3d	13	0.84mi
1297 E Broadway Ave Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,350	$2.46	2d	29	0.98mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $27,500 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-01-21
   price $29,900
3. 2025-11-18
   price $34,500
4. 2025-10-20
   listed $39,000 Active
5. 2025-06-01
   historical
6. 2025-01-24
   price $39,990
7. 2025-01-02
   status Active
8. 2025-01-01
   historical
9. 2024-11-10
   price $42,500
10. 2024-06-13
    listed $47,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥111°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $15,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,670
• After-tax cash flow: $11,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-37.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $29,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $34,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $39,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $39,990 ARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-11-10 Price Changed $42,500 ARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Listed $47,500 ARMLS