5503 River Rd · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home presents an excellent investment opportunity with strong renovation potential. The property features a covered front porch and sits in a convenient location just minutes from Hope Mills Municipal Park and close to Hope Mills Lake, offering future residents access to recreational activities and natural beauty.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Natural beauty
• Built 1976

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• NATURAL BEAUTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level home; 1 story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Located in the HOPE MILLS subdivision; Zoned R10 - Residential District

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms not individually specified)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; No fireplace; Other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hope Mills Middle (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #331 of 475 statewide, top 70%, 514 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.10%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $16,657
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $61,699
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $788

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4033 Professional Dr Unit 4033 Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,095	$1.04	23d	1	0.22mi
4079 Professional Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,095	$1.04	23d	1	0.26mi
4065 Professional Dr Unit 4065 Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,095	$1.04	23d	1	0.28mi
4065 Professional Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,095	$1.04	21d	1	0.28mi
3916 Middle St Hope Mills, NC	2.0	1.0	905	$1,115	$1.23	13d	1	0.33mi
3717 Damien Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	975	$1,280	$1.31	13d	3	0.34mi
5715 Walkabout Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,675	$1.47	23d	1	0.54mi
5693A Archer Rd Hope Mills, NC	2.0	1.5	874	$1,100	$1.26	13d	1	0.60mi
3332 Kenmont Ln Unit E Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,150	$1.05	23d	1	0.83mi
509 Meadowland Ct Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1236	$1,400	$1.13	23d	1	1.28mi
1514 Aristo Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	13d	1	1.32mi
1055 Winnall LN Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,000	$1.77	13d	20	1.36mi
3636 Metric Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $98,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $810 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $810 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $4,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $4,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hope Mills, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $100,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $810 · +38.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.