1941 Bluff Mountain Rd · Pigeon Forge, TN 37876

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 1983 0.76 ac lot $97/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set in the Bluff Mountain area on . 76 acres, this property offers a setting surrounded by the natural beauty of Sevier County while remaining conveniently close to the attractions of Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and Gatlinburg. This home features flexibility to accommodate a variety of needs. The outdoor space offers opportunities to relax, entertain, or create your own personalized retreat. Whether enjoying quiet mornings or unwinding in the evenings, the setting provides a balance of convenience and versatility. With its location and versatility, this property could be utilized as a primary residence, second home, short term rental, or investment. All square footage is approximate and is estimated by seller. All measurements and information was taken from the county tax records and the buyer should verify all information. The buyer may have all inspections completed but the seller will make no repairs or treatments. Please allow 48 hours for showings.

Key facts

• 0.76 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $779,502
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -77.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Ridgecrest Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-2%)	0mo	$421,500	$238	69
2752 Murray Ridge Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-15%)	0mo	$550,000	$358	60
1751 Blue Ridge Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-11%)	9mo	$620,000	$386	60
2615 Black Bear Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-4%)	14mo	$595,000	$344	50
2824 Ridge Creek Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-14%)	14mo	$625,000	$402	42
1955 Smoky Cove Rd	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,568 (-13%)	16mo	$630,000	$402	39
2985 Laughing Pine Ln	0.71mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,976 (+10%)	8mo	$975,000	$493	37
2149 Rising Fawn Way	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-13%)	22mo	$655,000	$420	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $105,751
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $289,306
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $174,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $179,900 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Set in the Bluff Mountain area on .76 acres, this property offers a setting surrounded by the natural beauty of Sevier County while remaining conveniently close to the attractions of Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and Gatlinburg. This home features flexibility to accommodate a variety of needs. The outdoor space offers opportunities to relax, entertain, or create your own personalized retreat. Whether enjoying quiet mornings or unwinding in the evenings, the setting provides a balance of convenience and versatility. With its location and versatility, this property could be utilized as a primary residence, short term rental, second home, or investment. All square footage is approximate and is estimated by seller. All measurements and information was taken from the county tax records and the buyer should verify all information. The buyer may have all inspections completed but the seller will make no repairs or treatments. Please allow 48 hours for showings.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $179,900 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Set in the Bluff Mountain area on .76 acres, this property offers a setting surrounded by the natural beauty of Sevier County while remaining conveniently close to the attractions of Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and Gatlinburg. This home features flexibility to accommodate a variety of needs. The outdoor space offers opportunities to relax, entertain, or create your own personalized retreat. Whether enjoying quiet mornings or unwinding in the evenings, the setting provides a balance of convenience and versatility. With its location and versatility, this property could be utilized as a primary residence, short term rental, second home, or investment. All square footage is approximate and is estimated by seller. All measurements and information was taken from the county tax records and the buyer should verify all information. The buyer may have all inspections completed but the seller will make no repairs or treatments. Please allow 48 hours for showings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$53
• After-tax cash flow: $2,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pigeon Forge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #6327

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• City population: 21,767
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $179,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $179,900 GSMAR

Property tax history

-12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $13 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.