116 Austin Ave · Venus, TX 76084

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 2020 8,581 sqft lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $287k · at est. $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller! Can assist with closing cost or rate buy-down. Nestled in the peaceful community of Patriot Estates and conveniently located near HWY 67, this home boasts an open concept layout, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, an island breakfast bar, a pantry, and ample cabinet and countertop space. The split bedroom arrangement offers privacy for the primary suite. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home is truly a must-see!

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Island breakfast bar
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ISLAND BREAKFAST BAR
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,017 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.36%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,647
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -2.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Rushmore Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,336 (0%)	4mo	$259,999	$195	87
210 Julian Davis Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	1mo	$307,900	$223	86
205 Julian Davis Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	2mo	$307,900	$223	85
418 Watson Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	3mo	$294,900	$214	84
317 Julian Davis Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	2mo	$307,900	$223	80
320 Julian Davis Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	2mo	$301,900	$219	80
424 Gib Woodall Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	6mo	$302,900	$220	77
204 Julian Davis Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-9%)	1mo	$292,900	$240	76
307 Julian Davis Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-9%)	2mo	$279,900	$230	74
415 Watson Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-9%)	6mo	$278,900	$229	72
432 Gib Woodall Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-9%)	6mo	$307,900	$253	65
163 Jefferson Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+15%)	4mo	$210,000	$137	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $71,546
• Equity at exit: $199,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $228,160
• Equity at exit: $385,229

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,730/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $195,017

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	19d	1	0.16mi
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	43d	1	0.16mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	11d	1	0.17mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	43d	1	0.18mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	0.20mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	24d	1	0.25mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	3d	1	0.30mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	1d	1	0.31mi
645 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	0.33mi
501 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,945	$1.60	43d	1	0.36mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	22d	1	0.36mi
656-660 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	1d	1	0.36mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	43d	1	0.36mi
663 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	1d	1	0.36mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	1d	1	0.37mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.37mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	7d	1	0.38mi
705 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,500	$1.32	24d	1	0.38mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	43d	1	0.39mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	43d	1	0.39mi
723 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	43d	1	0.40mi
733 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	24d	1	0.43mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	43d	1	0.43mi
737 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	24d	1	0.43mi
427 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,965	$1.61	43d	1	0.44mi
729 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,995	$1.53	43d	1	0.44mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	1d	1	0.44mi
748 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	0.45mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.46mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	1d	1	0.46mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	1d	1	0.47mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	22d	1	0.47mi
704 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,850	$1.36	44d	1	0.48mi
712 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	24d	1	0.49mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	1d	1	0.51mi
721 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	1d	1	0.52mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	15d	1	0.52mi
261 Heritage Hills Pkwy Venus, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,305	$2.53	1d	1	0.53mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	7d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-02-06
    listed $280,000 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Motivated seller! Can assist with closing cost or rate buy-down. Nestled in the peaceful community of Patriot Estates and conveniently located near HWY 67, this home boasts an open concept layout, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, an island breakfast bar, a pantry, and ample cabinet and countertop space. The split bedroom arrangement offers privacy for the primary suite. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home is truly a must-see!

16. 2025-12-30
    historical
17. 2025-09-23
    price $270,000
18. 2025-07-16
    price $279,999
19. 2025-06-26
    price $280,000
20. 2025-06-17
    price $282,400
21. 2025-06-02
    price $284,900
22. 2025-05-07
    price $285,000
23. 2025-04-06
    listed $290,000 Active
24. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus
25. 2023-05-10
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2023-04-17
    status Pending
27. 2023-04-10
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2023-03-29
    price $279,900
29. 2023-02-24
    listed $289,900 Active
30. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2020-02-23
    historical
32. 2020-02-21
    listed $195,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,730 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,730 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$6,730
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$10,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,567
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $279,999 NTREIS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $282,400 NTREIS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $284,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-06 Listed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-04-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-04-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-03-29 Price Changed $279,900 NTREIS
• 2023-02-24 Listed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2020-07-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-02-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-02-21 Listed $195,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,730 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.