426 N Houston St · Lorena, TX 76655

$199,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1900 1.00 ac lot $99/sqft · 39% below area Est $326k · 39% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 364 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.9% in Lorena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#325 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lorena ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #46 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.45%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,858
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -38.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 W Nolan St	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,951 (-3%)	8mo	$385,000	$197	76
401 Greystone Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,849 (-8%)	2mo	$340,000	$184	68
801 N Houston St	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-7%)	5mo	$165,000	$89	63
223 Lasso Loop	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,030 (+1%)	13mo	$474,912	$234	60
608 Shoal Rdg S	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,755 (-12%)	6mo	$339,900	$194	56
227 Lasso Loop	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,230 (+11%)	10mo	$437,990	$196	45
982 N Houston St	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,233 (+11%)	2mo	$250,000	$112	44
100 Thompson Cir	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (+3%)	10mo	$249,900	$121	43
111 Thompson Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,930 (-4%)	11mo	$265,000	$137	42
100 Russell St	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+10%)	10mo	$275,000	$125	41
401 Lee Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (-13%)	12mo	$315,000	$180	40
128 Thompson Cir	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,819 (-9%)	9mo	$315,000	$173	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $13,386
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $70,265
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $830	-5% $774	+0% $717	+5% $661	+10% $605
Rent	-10% $523	-5% $620	+0% $717	+5% $815	+10% $912
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $768	base $717	+0.5pp $666	+1.0pp $613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 359 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 356 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 355 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 353 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 350 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $199,000 Active 348 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,000 Active 347 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,000 Active 346 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,000 Active 345 DOM
16. 2026-01-02
    price $204,000 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

17. 2025-12-05
    price $209,000 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

18. 2025-10-15
    price $219,900 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

19. 2025-07-18
    status Active 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

20. 2025-07-10
    historical Active Option Contract 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

21. 2025-07-10
    status Pending 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

22. 2025-06-20
    price $229,900 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

23. 2025-06-19
    status Active 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

24. 2025-04-03
    historical 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

25. 2023-12-04
    listed $232,900 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    This is the fixer-upper you've been waiting for! A piece of Lorena's history, built in 1900, with some TLC, this would be an amazing property. Country living, within walking distance of the elementary, middle, and high schools. Don't miss these details: over 2,000 square feet, 2 living areas + a dining area, 2-story, 4 bedroom 1 bathroom, original hardwood floors and cabinets, rebuilt front porch, built-in display cabinet in dining, storage under staircase, tons of potential , shiplap detail. Open lot with tons of potential and mature, substantial trees. Also, there is a small storage shed in the back and fenced property. Note: Potential for second bathroom upstairs (plumbing in wall available).New Roof installed.

26. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,442/yr (+$204/mo · 203.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $5,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,361
• After-tax cash flow: $7,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lorena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828200
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $79,086
• Composite: 53.84/100
• National rank: #1412
• State rank: #46 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lorena

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #7155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lorena, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $204,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-12-04 Listed $232,900 NTREIS
• 2017-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,200 · +25.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.