865 N Branch Hortonville Rd · Hortonville, NY 12745

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,738 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1890 0.28 ac lot $72/sqft · 75% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors and rehab buyers: discover a premier value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Western Catskills market. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offers approximately 1,738 square feet of potential, serving as a blank canvas for a creative redesign, full renovation, or high-yield rental conversion. Ideally located in the Hortonville/Callicoon area, this property features a serene creekside setting with tranquil water views visible directly from the backyard. Situated just minutes from the Delaware River and the vibrant amenities of downtown Callicoon—including the farmers market, local dining, and boutique shops—this location is a magnet for long-term residents and weekenders alike. Whether you are looking to execute a fix-and-flip, build equity through a refreshed resale, or expand your investment portfolio, this property offers the scale and location to maximize your ROI. Property is sold as-is; bring your vision to this diamond in the rough and capitalize on the growing demand for Callicoon real estate. MOTIVATED SELLER!!!

Key facts

• Creek frontage
• Prime location
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• TWO-UNIT CONFIGURATION
• CREEK FRONTAGE
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#578 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.06%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $494,423
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -74.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $45,167
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $118,882
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12745

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,567/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active 1085-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

    Attention investors and rehab buyers: discover a premier value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Western Catskills market. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offers approximately 1,738 square feet of potential, serving as a blank canvas for a creative redesign, full renovation, or high-yield rental conversion. Ideally located in the Hortonville/Callicoon area, this property features a serene creekside setting with tranquil water views visible directly from the backyard. Situated just minutes from the Delaware River and the vibrant amenities of downtown Callicoon—including the farmers market, local dining, and boutique shops—this location is a magnet for long-term residents and weekenders alike. Whether you are looking to execute a fix-and-flip, build equity through a refreshed resale, or expand your investment portfolio, this property offers the scale and location to maximize your ROI. Property is sold as-is; bring your vision to this diamond in the rough and capitalize on the growing demand for Callicoon real estate. MOTIVATED SELLER!!!

16. 2026-05-14
    price $139,000 1085-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

    Attention investors and rehab buyers: discover a premier value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Western Catskills market. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offers approximately 1,738 square feet of potential, serving as a blank canvas for a creative redesign, full renovation, or high-yield rental conversion. Ideally located in the Hortonville/Callicoon area, this property features a serene creekside setting with tranquil water views visible directly from the backyard. Situated just minutes from the Delaware River and the vibrant amenities of downtown Callicoon—including the farmers market, local dining, and boutique shops—this location is a magnet for long-term residents and weekenders alike. Whether you are looking to execute a fix-and-flip, build equity through a refreshed resale, or expand your investment portfolio, this property offers the scale and location to maximize your ROI. Property is sold as-is; bring your vision to this diamond in the rough and capitalize on the growing demand for Callicoon real estate. MOTIVATED SELLER!!!

17. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 1085-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

    Attention investors and rehab buyers: discover a premier value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Western Catskills market. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offers approximately 1,738 square feet of potential, serving as a blank canvas for a creative redesign, full renovation, or high-yield rental conversion. Ideally located in the Hortonville/Callicoon area, this property features a serene creekside setting with tranquil water views visible directly from the backyard. Situated just minutes from the Delaware River and the vibrant amenities of downtown Callicoon—including the farmers market, local dining, and boutique shops—this location is a magnet for long-term residents and weekenders alike. Whether you are looking to execute a fix-and-flip, build equity through a refreshed resale, or expand your investment portfolio, this property offers the scale and location to maximize your ROI. Property is sold as-is; bring your vision to this diamond in the rough and capitalize on the growing demand for Callicoon real estate. MOTIVATED SELLER!!!

18. 2026-02-10
    price $150,000 1085-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

    Attention investors and rehab buyers: discover a premier value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Western Catskills market. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offers approximately 1,738 square feet of potential, serving as a blank canvas for a creative redesign, full renovation, or high-yield rental conversion. Ideally located in the Hortonville/Callicoon area, this property features a serene creekside setting with tranquil water views visible directly from the backyard. Situated just minutes from the Delaware River and the vibrant amenities of downtown Callicoon—including the farmers market, local dining, and boutique shops—this location is a magnet for long-term residents and weekenders alike. Whether you are looking to execute a fix-and-flip, build equity through a refreshed resale, or expand your investment portfolio, this property offers the scale and location to maximize your ROI. Property is sold as-is; bring your vision to this diamond in the rough and capitalize on the growing demand for Callicoon real estate. MOTIVATED SELLER!!!

19. 2026-01-19
    price $245,000 1085-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

    Attention investors and rehab buyers: discover a premier value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Western Catskills market. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offers approximately 1,738 square feet of potential, serving as a blank canvas for a creative redesign, full renovation, or high-yield rental conversion. Ideally located in the Hortonville/Callicoon area, this property features a serene creekside setting with tranquil water views visible directly from the backyard. Situated just minutes from the Delaware River and the vibrant amenities of downtown Callicoon—including the farmers market, local dining, and boutique shops—this location is a magnet for long-term residents and weekenders alike. Whether you are looking to execute a fix-and-flip, build equity through a refreshed resale, or expand your investment portfolio, this property offers the scale and location to maximize your ROI. Property is sold as-is; bring your vision to this diamond in the rough and capitalize on the growing demand for Callicoon real estate. MOTIVATED SELLER!!!

20. 2025-11-22
    listed $250,000 Active 1085-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

    Attention investors and rehab buyers: discover a premier value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Western Catskills market. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offers approximately 1,738 square feet of potential, serving as a blank canvas for a creative redesign, full renovation, or high-yield rental conversion. Ideally located in the Hortonville/Callicoon area, this property features a serene creekside setting with tranquil water views visible directly from the backyard. Situated just minutes from the Delaware River and the vibrant amenities of downtown Callicoon—including the farmers market, local dining, and boutique shops—this location is a magnet for long-term residents and weekenders alike. Whether you are looking to execute a fix-and-flip, build equity through a refreshed resale, or expand your investment portfolio, this property offers the scale and location to maximize your ROI. Property is sold as-is; bring your vision to this diamond in the rough and capitalize on the growing demand for Callicoon real estate. MOTIVATED SELLER!!!

21. 2024-04-16
    listed $199,000 Active
22. 2005-01-21
    soldstatus $227,000
23. 1997-04-30
    soldstatus $106,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,567
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$956
• After-tax cash flow: $4,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan West Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600023
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,078
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3817
• State rank: #436 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hortonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #578
• US rank: #10444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $245,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Listed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-16 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $227,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $106,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,567 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.