1223 E Lincoln · Clarinda, IA 51632

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1900 10,019 sqft lot $64/sqft · 27% below area Est $55k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This fixer-upper sits on a larger corner lot in a quiet neighborhood. Freshly painted interior and waiting for you to add the final touches.

Key facts

• Quiet neighborhood
• Corner lot
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($725 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.4% in Clarinda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#289 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarinda Community School District (town): math 61% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #249 of 289 in IA (top 86%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 25 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Page County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.75%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,818
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -27.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 N 11th St	0.44mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (-8%)	2mo	$68,000	$118	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $14,168
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $38,910
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51632

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $264/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$152
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $314

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 N 16th St Apt A7 Clarinda, IA	1.0	1.0	564	$725	$1.29	43d	1	0.90mi
1010 N 16th St Clarinda, IA	1.0	1.0	564	$725	$1.29	43d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $50,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    This fixer-upper sits on a larger corner lot in a quiet neighborhood. Freshly painted interior and waiting for you to add the final touches.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $264 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $446 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 68.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$264
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$696
• − Management: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $3,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$826
• After-tax cash flow: $3,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarinda Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907350
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,371
• Composite: 50.74/100
• National rank: #1814
• State rank: #249 of 289 in IA

Livability — Clarinda

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #5589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clarinda, IA
• City population: 6,682
• Population (ZIP): 6,682

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,052 people
• By 2030: 14,709 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 13,981 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 13,302 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 11,678 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 9,213 · -38.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+43.0 2016: R+44.1 2012: R+24.9 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.86%
• Current HPI: 179.9325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $50,000 IAR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $264 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.