85 Miss Ellie Cir · Belton, MO 64012

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 0 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2023

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile Home For Sale, located inside Southfork Community. The current base rent for the lot is $680.00, which includes onsite management, on-site nonprofit Project Access and access to all of our fantastic community amenities & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; such as a 24/7 fitness center, walking trails, soccer field, playscapes, outdoor kitchens, picnic areas, and of course & acirc; & euro; & brvbar; the pool! Trash is billed at $10.00 a month. Subject to Application approval prior to moving into community. When you& apos; re ready to submit your application, please include the following: - An unexpired photo ID for all individuals over the age of 17 -A copy o

Key facts

• Soccer field
• Playscapes
• 24/7 fitness center

Tags

• 24/7 FITNESS CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS
• SOCCER FIELD
• PLAYSCAPES
• OUTDOOR KITCHENS
• PICNIC AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $866 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.2% vs local median 4.7% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#52 in MO, #3,782 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Belton 124 (suburban): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #216 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.48%
• DSCR: 4.00
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $49,784
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.41×
• Total profit: $129,560
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64012

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $866

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 W 162nd Ter Belton, MO	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,565	$1.18	3d	1	0.43mi
834 Autumn Woods Dr VLG LOCH LOYD, MO	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,730	$1.31	2d	4	0.44mi
215 W 162nd Ter Belton, MO	3.0	2.5	—	$1,565	—	2d	1	0.44mi
300 Hill St Unit A Belton, MO	4.0	2.0	—	$1,200	—	20d	1	0.52mi
161 Rainbow Dr Belton, MO	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,478	$0.91	24d	1	0.69mi
6404 E 155th St Grandview, MO	3.0	2.0	—	$1,595	—	3d	1	0.86mi
309 Hawthorne Ct Apt A Belton, MO	2.0	1.5	—	$1,300	—	7d	1	0.92mi
6203 E 152nd Ter Unit A Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	—	$970	—	44d	1	1.05mi
6003 E 151st Ter Unit A Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$975	$1.50	44d	1	1.06mi
6205 E 152 Ter Unit B Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	7d	1	1.06mi
15319 Grand Summit Ext Grandview, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,150	$1.41	44d	1	1.12mi
108 E Hargis St Belton, MO	2.0	1.0	610	$895	$1.47	2d	3	1.17mi
301 Towne Center Dr Belton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,799	$1.68	2d	9	1.32mi
6108 E 149th St Grandview, MO	4.0	1.5	1200	$1,465	$1.22	44d	1	1.48mi
6205 E 149th St Grandview, MO	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	21d	1	1.49mi
117 Monroe Ave Belton, MO	3.0	2.5	1972	$1,950	$0.99	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $55,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $10,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $7,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton 124
• NCES district ID: 2904620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,946
• Composite: 29.73/100
• National rank: #6446
• State rank: #216 of 324 in MO

Livability — Belton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #3782

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, MO
• County: Cass County · 65,358 people
• City population: 29,304
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 29,304
• Household income: $71,814
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -244.76%
• Current HPI: 214.6157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $55,000 FSBO.com