5611 Nichols St · Houston, TX 77020

$170,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 605 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1939 5,000 sqft lot $281/sqft · 82% above area Est $309k · 45% under ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-Corner Homes In The Near North Chew subdivision, May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 187646792, 32158022, 35844177, 36322345, 4544794

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1939

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Atherton El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 433 students, 96% FRL); Mcreynolds Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 398 students, 98% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,903 (44.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.86%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,240
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -45.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $66,533
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $220,449
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,338/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $93,903

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-335	-5% $-383	+0% $-431	+5% $-479	+10% $-527
Rent	-10% $-512	-5% $-471	+0% $-431	+5% $-390	+10% $-350
Rate	-1.0pp $-345	-0.5pp $-388	base $-431	+0.5pp $-475	+1.0pp $-520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4903 Noble St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	525	$1,200	$2.29	45d	1	0.35mi
2202 Solo St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	620	$1,200	$1.94	45d	1	0.36mi
5408 Market St Unit 5408-1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$900	$1.23	7d	1	0.61mi
5504 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$850	$1.13	26d	1	0.76mi
5510 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	0.77mi
5514 Morgood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	45d	1	0.79mi
621 Majestic St Unit Back Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	45d	1	0.82mi
1909 Benson St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	460	$795	$1.73	20d	1	0.90mi
1911 Benson St Unit 4 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	460	$795	$1.73	7d	1	0.91mi
1911 Benson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	460	$795	$1.73	20d	1	0.91mi
6116 Octavia St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	611	$775	$1.27	26d	1	0.95mi
6116 Octavia St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	611	$715	$1.17	1d	1	0.95mi
5436 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	0.95mi
5430 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	0.97mi
5462 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	0.98mi
3802 Dabney St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$990	$1.20	45d	2	1.00mi
3806 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	15d	1	1.02mi
3814 Wipprecht St Unit 18B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	18d	1	1.03mi
3813 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	26d	1	1.04mi
7212 Corpus Christi St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	45d	1	1.05mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	45d	1	1.20mi
4249 Clinton Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,950	$2.82	4d	1	1.31mi
5006 Cavalcade St Apt 2 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	541	$850	$1.57	45d	1	1.34mi
1800 N Wayside Dr Unit 5 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	442	$750	$1.70	24d	1	1.42mi
3031 Sumpter St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	502	$850	$1.69	26d	1	1.43mi
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	26d	1	1.43mi
3031 Sumpter St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	502	$850	$1.69	15d	1	1.43mi
1412 Sydnor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	507	$800	$1.58	26d	1	1.49mi
1412 Sydnor St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$700	$1.40	14d	1	1.49mi
1412 Sydnor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	507	$800	$1.58	45d	1	1.49mi
1412 Sydnor St Unit 7 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$650	$1.30	15d	1	1.49mi
1412 Sydnor St Unit 5 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$700	$1.40	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-03-23
    price $170,000 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    3-Corner Homes In The Near North Chew subdivision, May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 187646792, 32158022, 35844177, 36322345, 4544794

13. 2025-11-15
    listed $237,000 Active 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    3-Corner Homes In The Near North Chew subdivision, May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 187646792, 32158022, 35844177, 36322345, 4544794

14. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,338 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,338 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,338
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$8,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,998
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $237,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,338 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.