407 China · Brady, TX 76825

$84,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1940 5,009 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A lovely 1,146 sq ft three bedroom, one bath home on a nice corner lot. This home has been updated with new windows, new flooring, and an updated bathroom. This property also has a 400 sq ft garage and workshop.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Updated bathroom
• New windows

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.5% in Brady — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#270 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brady ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #238 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brady El (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 476 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brady ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in McCulloch County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($584 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.21%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,552
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 W China St	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-1%)	11mo	$169,000	$100	85
2020 Old Calf Creek Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-3%)	2mo	$215,000	$130	79
1921 S China St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+1%)	7mo	$142,000	$83	71
2013 S High St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+4%)	5mo	$247,500	$140	69
2001 S High	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,645 (-3%)	12mo	$184,500	$112	60
2009 S China St	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,927 (+14%)	4mo	$210,000	$109	58
2017 S High St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,910 (+12%)	3mo	$247,500	$130	58
2005 S Pine St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+11%)	2mo	$234,000	$124	55
2022 S High St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,855 (+9%)	16mo	$190,000	$102	53
108 Bruce St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,838 (+8%)	11mo	$289,000	$157	42
2000 S High St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+12%)	17mo	$244,900	$129	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $42,485
• Equity at exit: $55,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $112,519
• Equity at exit: $104,037

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76825

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,623/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $882

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $84,500
3. 2025-09-09
   listed $87,500 Active
4. 2008-09-26
   soldstatus
5. 2001-07-12
   soldstatus
6. 1996-10-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,623 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,623 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$2,623
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $1,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$414
• After-tax cash flow: $2,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brady ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811110
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,179
• Composite: 40.02/100
• National rank: #3826
• State rank: #238 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brady

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #6336

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brady, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,595

Population outlook (McCulloch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,509 people
• By 2030: 8,544 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 8,555 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 8,486 · -0.3%
• By 2075: 8,089 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 6,599 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · McCulloch

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.4) · D 12.9% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.0pp · 2024: -73.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.4 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+51.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.53%
• Current HPI: 161.5061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $84,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $87,500 NTREIS
• 2008-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,623 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.