26264 Cove Dr · Long Neck, DE 19966

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Manufactured public records · 374 Days on market

Built 2000 104 ac lot $81/sqft · 35% below area Est $201k · 35% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover coastal living at its best with this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom waterfront home in the desirable community of Mariners Cove. Boasting over 1,500 sq ft of living space, this home offers an open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright and airy atmosphere. Step outside to your backyard oasis, featuring a newly installed bulkhead that provides direct access to the water, ideal for boating, fishing, or simply enjoying serene water views. An attached shed offers additional storage for all your outdoor gear. New steps were just added on the side of the house as well. Located just minutes from shops, restaurants, and the picturesque Rehoboth Bay, this home provides comfort, convenience, and coastal charm.

Key facts

• Waterfront home
• Minutes from shops
• Backyard oasis

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• BACKYARD OASIS
• NEWLY INSTALLED BULKHEAD
• DIRECT ACCESS TO WATER
• ATTACHED SHED
• MINUTES FROM SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.2% in Long Neck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 865 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 374 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 374 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.78%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,639
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -35.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25869 N Pine St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-2%)	1mo	$145,500	$93	79
35476 Bayview Ln #4147	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	17mo	$146,000	$104	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $22,789
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $76,956
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19966

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 865
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $350/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,553

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35805 S Gloucester Cir Millsboro, DE	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,300	$1.10	44d	1	0.48mi
35829 S Gloucester Cir Unit 35829 Long Neck, DE	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	13d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 374 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 373 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 372 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 371 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 369 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 366 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 365 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 364 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 363 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 358 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 357 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 356 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 355 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    price $129,900 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Discover coastal living at its best with this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom waterfront home in the desirable community of Mariners Cove. Boasting over 1,500 sq ft of living space, this home offers an open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright and airy atmosphere. Step outside to your backyard oasis, featuring a newly installed bulkhead that provides direct access to the water, ideal for boating, fishing, or simply enjoying serene water views. An attached shed offers additional storage for all your outdoor gear. New steps were just added on the side of the house as well. Located just minutes from shops, restaurants, and the picturesque Rehoboth Bay, this home provides comfort, convenience, and coastal charm.

16. 2025-06-09
    listed $155,000 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Discover coastal living at its best with this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom waterfront home in the desirable community of Mariners Cove. Boasting over 1,500 sq ft of living space, this home offers an open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright and airy atmosphere. Step outside to your backyard oasis, featuring a newly installed bulkhead that provides direct access to the water, ideal for boating, fishing, or simply enjoying serene water views. An attached shed offers additional storage for all your outdoor gear. New steps were just added on the side of the house as well. Located just minutes from shops, restaurants, and the picturesque Rehoboth Bay, this home provides comfort, convenience, and coastal charm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $350 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 57.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$350
• − Insurance: −$6,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,323
• − Management: −$2,323
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $6,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,629
• After-tax cash flow: $6,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Long Neck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #8720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sussex County · 82,708 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 35,884
• Household income: $78,305
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.26%
• Current HPI: 268.5609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $350 · -34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.