538 S Taylors Trl · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$174,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition 1,960 sqft lot $124/sqft · 14% below area Est $204k · 14% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! AFFORDABLE, 2-bedroom plus office/den, 2-bath home located in a highly desirable gated community. This property features an open-concept floorplan with a bright, spacious living area that flows easily into the dining space and kitchen; ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The additional office/den provides flexible space for working from home, hobbies, or guest use. The home offers great potential and a functional layout. Situated within a sought-after gated community, you'll enjoy privacy along with convenient access to amenities. A wonderful opportunity to make this home your own!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Flexible space
• 1,960 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• BRIGHT SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,837
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -14.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
231 S Clubhouse Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-0%)	3mo	$200,000	$142	88
434 S Meadowood Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,408 (-0%)	4mo	$182,500	$130	88
301 S Clubhouse Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,474 (+4%)	6mo	$217,000	$147	81
232 S Clubhouse Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (+6%)	2mo	$190,000	$127	74
611 S Taylors Trl	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,226 (-13%)	3mo	$241,500	$197	74
369 S Taylors Trail --	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,229 (-13%)	1mo	$214,000	$174	73
652 S Taylors Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+12%)	2mo	$256,000	$161	70
475 S Meadowood Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,219 (-14%)	3mo	$155,000	$127	68
426 S Taylors Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (+12%)	4mo	$130,000	$82	68
760 S Chase St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+12%)	3mo	$265,000	$167	64
559 S Meadowood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (+13%)	6mo	$239,900	$151	62
258 S Taylors Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,597 (+13%)	4mo	$219,000	$137	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-24,301
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,075
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,581/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 S Clubhouse Ln Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	43d	3	0.25mi
5478 Waco Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	43d	1	1.20mi
5330 Sonora St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,425	$1.07	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,900 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $174,900 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! AFFORDABLE, 2-bedroom plus office/den, 2-bath home located in a highly desirable gated community. This property features an open-concept floorplan with a bright, spacious living area that flows easily into the dining space and kitchen; ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The additional office/den provides flexible space for working from home, hobbies, or guest use. The home offers great potential and a functional layout. Situated within a sought-after gated community, you'll enjoy privacy along with convenient access to amenities. A wonderful opportunity to make this home your own!

18. 2025-12-03
    listed $179,900 Active 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! AFFORDABLE, 2-bedroom plus office/den, 2-bath home located in a highly desirable gated community. This property features an open-concept floorplan with a bright, spacious living area that flows easily into the dining space and kitchen; ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The additional office/den provides flexible space for working from home, hobbies, or guest use. The home offers great potential and a functional layout. Situated within a sought-after gated community, you'll enjoy privacy along with convenient access to amenities. A wonderful opportunity to make this home your own!

19. 2025-11-13
    historical
20. 2025-11-13
    historical
21. 2025-09-02
    status Active
22. 2025-09-01
    historical
23. 2025-08-20
    price $190,000
24. 2025-08-19
    price $190,000
25. 2025-05-06
    status Active
26. 2025-05-05
    listed $195,000 Active
27. 2025-03-06
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
28. 2024-11-19
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,581
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$1,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$306
• After-tax cash flow: $1,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping to enhance curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $174,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Listed $195,000 ARMLS