315 Brown St · Paris, AR 72855

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1987 10,019 sqft lot $49/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL * * * * This house is ready for someone to come and love it. It has lots of potential. It sits on a corner lot just blocks from HWY 22. There is a cellar. There is a detached garage that will need some work. There is a chain link fenced in side yard with mature trees that would make a great entertaining area. It is ready for a new owner to bring their vision. House will be sold as is where is.

Key facts

• Cellar
• Fenced in side yard
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CELLAR
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED IN SIDE YARD
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($944 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 5.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#68 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris School District (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 238 in AR (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.74%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,186
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -52.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
804 E Academy St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (+7%)	1mo	$114,000	$117	53
105 Mckeen St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+12%)	20mo	$127,000	$124	49
714 E Academy St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+8%)	12mo	$105,000	$107	43
519 S 10th St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (+10%)	10mo	$62,000	$62	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $22,622
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $58,198
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72855

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $944 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $253/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 200 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 199 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $45,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL * * * * This house is ready for someone to come and love it. It has lots of potential. It sits on a corner lot just blocks from HWY 22. There is a cellar. There is a detached garage that will need some work. There is a chain link fenced in side yard with mature trees that would make a great entertaining area. It is ready for a new owner to bring their vision. House will be sold as is where is.

18. 2026-02-12
    price $55,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL * * * * This house is ready for someone to come and love it. It has lots of potential. It sits on a corner lot just blocks from HWY 22. There is a cellar. There is a detached garage that will need some work. There is a chain link fenced in side yard with mature trees that would make a great entertaining area. It is ready for a new owner to bring their vision. House will be sold as is where is.

19. 2026-01-01
    price $65,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL * * * * This house is ready for someone to come and love it. It has lots of potential. It sits on a corner lot just blocks from HWY 22. There is a cellar. There is a detached garage that will need some work. There is a chain link fenced in side yard with mature trees that would make a great entertaining area. It is ready for a new owner to bring their vision. House will be sold as is where is.

20. 2025-11-12
    listed $75,000 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL * * * * This house is ready for someone to come and love it. It has lots of potential. It sits on a corner lot just blocks from HWY 22. There is a cellar. There is a detached garage that will need some work. There is a chain link fenced in side yard with mature trees that would make a great entertaining area. It is ready for a new owner to bring their vision. House will be sold as is where is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $253 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$35/yr (+$3/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$253
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$906
• − Management: −$906
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $4,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris School District
• NCES district ID: 0511130
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,950
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5763
• State rank: #83 of 238 in AR

Livability — Paris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #8544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,462

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,046 people
• By 2030: 20,537 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,443 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 18,220 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 16,164 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 14,858 · -29.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 17.8% · R 80.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.40%
• Current HPI: 170.513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $45,000 WRVBOR
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $55,000 WRVBOR
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $65,000 WRVBOR
• 2025-11-12 Listed $75,000 WRVBOR

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $253 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.