820 Thomas Ln · Angola on the Lake, NY 14006

$59,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 2014 Fair condition $56/sqft · 5% below area Est $63k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom 1 bath front kitchen. Home comes furnished. Washer, dryer, stove, fridge, microwave and dishwasher, included as well as air conditioner units, lawn mower, blower. This home is built with M Zone Construction, 16 on center with 2X6 walls and Hud Plan Stretched Width Of House, which were upgrades when purchased new.

Key facts

• Built 2014
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $575

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; Sewer connected; Public water available; Circuit breaker electrical service; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home (Champion); Single-story home; Existing (resale) condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch; Porch; Shed(s) and storage; Greenbelt and rectangular residential lot; City street and private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar / eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Drapes and thermal windows; Accessible doors; Partially furnished; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Window treatments; Main level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,000 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore) (suburban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #424 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $58,607 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.98%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,796
• List price: $59,500
• Delta: -5.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
826 Thomas Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	980 (-8%)	12mo	$59,650	$61	72
840 Thomas Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+5%)	13mo	$69,900	$62	68
849 Thomas Ln	0.11mi	2/1.5	980 (-8%)	16mo	$65,000	$66	66
874 Thomas Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	980 (-8%)	18mo	$65,000	$66	58
859 Nicole Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0	924 (-13%)	12mo	$37,000	$40	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $19,533
• Equity at exit: $8,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $54,622
• Equity at exit: $5,144

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14006

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $478	+0% $458	+5% $437	+10% $417
Rent	-10% $371	-5% $414	+0% $458	+5% $501	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $473	base $458	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Orchard Ave Unit 1 Angola, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-29
   listed $59,500 Active 324-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $4,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $4,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, with potential roof issues. Interior improvements and roof replacement would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Siding condition suggests potential roof issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair and paint interior — Improves living conditions and value
• Both replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Siding condition suggests potential roof issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair and paint interior — Improves living conditions and value ↑
• Both replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore)
• NCES district ID: 3616560
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,433
• Composite: 40.89/100
• National rank: #3619
• State rank: #424 of 590 in NY

Livability — Angola on the Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1000
• US rank: #19506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Angola on the Lake, NY
• City population: 9,354
• Population (ZIP): 9,354

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Italian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.95%
• Current HPI: 401.7461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $59,500 CNYIS