13238 SW 78th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · Land · 95 Days on market

Built 2025 10,250 sqft lot $168/sqft · at area comps Est $296k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,787 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space with premium finishes throughout. The spacious open- concept floor plan is enhanced by 9’4” ceilings and luxury tile plank flooring in every room. The kitchen features 36" real wood cabinetry, stone countertops, and stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include large walk-in closets, double-pane low-emissivity windows, LED lighting, and a high- performance 16 SEER HVAC system for year-round energy efficiency. The exterior is complemented by designer landscaping and a full irrigation system, adding to the home’s curb appeal. This home also includes structural warranty by Maverick, offering peace of mind for years to come. A perfect blend of comfort, quality, and modern design—this home is move-in ready and built to impress.

Key facts

• Real wood cabinetry
• Stone countertops
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• REAL WOOD CABINETRY
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• HIGH PERFORMANCE HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,042 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,384
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 1.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-62,528
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-88,662
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $977/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $278,745

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13215 SW 77th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,800	$1.37	14d	1	0.32mi
7060 SW 131st Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.36mi
7146 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,600	$0.92	21d	1	0.36mi
13130 SW 78th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1816	$1,900	$1.05	14d	1	0.37mi
13101 SW 72nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,250	$1.08	14d	1	0.42mi
7052 SW 131st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1718	$1,550	$0.90	21d	1	0.42mi
7883 SW 138th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,125	$1.14	21d	1	0.48mi
7011 SW 136th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,300	$1.38	14d	1	0.49mi
769 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	0.64mi
8070 SW 131st Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	14d	1	0.66mi
6872 SW 132nd Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	21d	1	0.66mi
6872 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	21d	1	0.68mi
13205 SW 65th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	14d	1	0.75mi
6732 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,950	$1.10	14d	1	0.79mi
8341 SW 135th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$1,600	$0.99	21d	1	0.93mi
8427 SW 136th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,095	$1.19	21d	1	0.95mi
13033 SW 82nd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,895	$1.34	14d	1	0.96mi
13153 SW 65th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	21d	1	0.96mi
6555 SW 129th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	14d	1	0.97mi
8398 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,900	$1.14	21d	1	1.03mi
13092 SW 84th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	21d	1	1.06mi
14576 SW 75th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1936	$1,945	$1.00	14d	1	1.06mi
8181 SW 128th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,745	$1.24	14d	1	1.08mi
820 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1747	$1,995	$1.14	21d	1	1.10mi
12847 SW 84th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,850	$1.33	21d	1	1.21mi
8713 SW 138th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,950	$1.25	21d	1	1.29mi
585 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,165	$1.13	14d	1	1.32mi
13616 SW 61st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,595	$1.21	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-03-15
    listed $299,900 Active 1016-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,787 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space with premium finishes throughout. The spacious open- concept floor plan is enhanced by 9’4” ceilings and luxury tile plank flooring in every room. The kitchen features 36" real wood cabinetry, stone countertops, and stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include large walk-in closets, double-pane low-emissivity windows, LED lighting, and a high- performance 16 SEER HVAC system for year-round energy efficiency. The exterior is complemented by designer landscaping and a full irrigation system, adding to the home’s curb appeal. This home also includes structural warranty by Maverick, offering peace of mind for years to come. A perfect blend of comfort, quality, and modern design—this home is move-in ready and built to impress.

17. 2024-12-10
    soldstatus $1,343,900
18. 2009-04-17
    soldstatus $27,003
19. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $40,300
20. 2001-11-14
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,512/yr (+$126/mo · 154.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$977
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,639
• After-tax cash flow: $202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+351.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,343,900 Public Records
• 2009-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $27,003 Public Records
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $40,300 Public Records
• 2001-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $977 · +71.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.