333 N Vine St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$99,500

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,860 sqft · Other · 74 Days on market

Built 1922 2,178 sqft lot $53/sqft · 43% above area Est $69k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in Mount Carmel Borough! This multi-level property includes a lower-level commercial space with a walk-in cooler and bar area, plus upper-level space with potential for additional residential units (buyer to verify permits and feasibility). The third floor has a separate entrance, offering flexible live/work or rental possibilities. Sold as-is, this property presents a blank canvas for value-add investors. Convenient access to PA-61 and local amenities makes it an ideal multi-use investment with lots of potential. Buyer to verify zoning, permits, and potential uses.

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Bar area
• Upper-level space

Tags

• LOWER-LEVEL COMMERCIAL SPACE
• WALK-IN COOLER
• BAR AREA
• UPPER-LEVEL SPACE
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• LIVE/WORK POSSIBILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $100k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.15%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,366
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: 43.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $61,293
• Equity at exit: $64,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $155,851
• Equity at exit: $118,744

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $510	+0% $482	+5% $454	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $423	+0% $482	+5% $540	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $507	base $482	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,500 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,500 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,500 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $99,500 Active 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Investor opportunity in Mount Carmel Borough! This multi-level property includes a lower-level commercial space with a walk-in cooler and bar area, plus upper-level space with potential for additional residential units (buyer to verify permits and feasibility). The third floor has a separate entrance, offering flexible live/work or rental possibilities. Sold as-is, this property presents a blank canvas for value-add investors. Convenient access to PA-61 and local amenities makes it an ideal multi-use investment with lots of potential. Buyer to verify zoning, permits, and potential uses.

17. 2023-12-13
    soldstatus $29,000 Closed
18. 2023-11-13
    status Pending
19. 2023-11-06
    listed $29,000 Active
20. 2013-06-18
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$358/yr (+$30/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$1,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $4,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $4,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+185.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $99,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-13 Sold (MLS) $29,000 CSVBR
• 2023-11-13 Pending — CSVBR
• 2023-11-06 Listed $29,000 CSVBR
• 2013-06-18 Listed $34,900 CSVBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $856 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.