612 Babbling Brook Dr · Denton, TX 76259

$288,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 6,046 sqft lot Est $318k · 9% under $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Monarch at the Meadows, a fabulous unique master planned community in Denton and Krum ISD! The Amber plan elevation-B, with an estimated Summer completion, is a charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2-car garage. The front porch opens to the entry foyer leading to a gourmet kitchen which includes granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing to the dining room and living room. The first bedroom features an attractive en-suite bathroom with cultured marble vanity countertop and large walk-in closet. Ad

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Granite counter tops
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKING RANGE
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,320 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Babbling Brook Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,773 (+7%)	2mo	$347,990	$196	82
537 Amber Fields Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,477 (-11%)	1mo	$283,990	$192	80
533 Red Admiral Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-6%)	1mo	$295,990	$189	76
513 Amber Fields Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,477 (-11%)	2mo	$279,990	$190	74
533 Amber Fields Dr	0.05mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+10%)	2mo	$293,990	$162	73
521 Amber Fields Dr	0.08mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+10%)	2mo	$297,990	$164	72
509 Amber Fields Dr	0.10mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+10%)	1mo	$290,990	$160	71
713 Wildrye Ln	0.14mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+10%)	1mo	$299,990	$165	70
7513 Lavender Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-3%)	0mo	$352,990	$221	68
7333 Spicebush Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-5%)	0mo	$335,294	$213	62
7524 Lavender Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,877 (+13%)	0mo	$388,334	$207	54
7504 Cloverleaf Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-9%)	1mo	$347,294	$230	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-34,141
• Equity at exit: $43,089

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-13,209
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $288,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $398	-5% $298	+0% $198	+5% $98	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $87	+0% $198	+5% $310	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $272	base $198	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,248
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7709 Tuscarora Dr Ponder, TX	5.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	12d	1	0.09mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $288,990
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $285,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,714
• − Management: −$2,714
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$2,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$560
• After-tax cash flow: $2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior siding, flooring, and interior walls. Significant improvements in these areas would greatly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear on the roof.
• Major exterior siding — Severe peeling paint and possible rot.
• Major flooring — Severe wear and tear on the flooring.
• Major interior walls/paint — Severe peeling paint and possible damage on the interior walls.
• Major systems — Outdated or damaged systems likely present, based on overall condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition.
• Resale Exterior siding repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale Floor refinishing — Refinishing the flooring will make the home more attractive and increase its value.
• Resale Interior wall repairs — Repairing the interior walls will improve the home's condition and increase its value.
• Both New HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear on the roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe peeling paint and possible rot.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Severe wear and tear on the flooring.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Severe peeling paint and possible damage on the interior walls.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · Outdated or damaged systems likely present, based on overall condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition. ↑
• Resale Exterior siding repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Floor refinishing — Refinishing the flooring will make the home more attractive and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Interior wall repairs — Repairing the interior walls will improve the home's condition and increase its value. ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $288,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $285,990 NTREIS