21722 3rd St · Johnson Park, CA 96013

$107,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1950 8,276 sqft lot $186/sqft · at area comps Est $107k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming chalet-style home with tons of potential. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath property offers 576 square feet of comfortable living space in the desirable Johnson Park area, close to Hwy 299 and located within the Fall River Joint School District. This home sits on a double lot with it's own separate parcel number perfect for development potential, extra yard space or even a shop. Enjoy the charming town of Burney, CA just a few minutes away and the larger community of Redding within 1 hr.

Key facts

• Extra yard space
• Double lot
• 8,276 sq ft lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
• EXTRA YARD SPACE
• SEPARATE PARCEL NUMBER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.77%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,224
• List price: $107,000
• Delta: -0.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,000
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $11,500
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96013

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $224	+0% $194	+5% $164	+10% $133
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $150	+0% $194	+5% $238	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $221	base $194	+0.5pp $166	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $107,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $107,000 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $107,000 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $107,000 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $107,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-03-19
   price $107,000 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Charming chalet-style home with tons of potential. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath property offers 576 square feet of comfortable living space in the desirable Johnson Park area, close to Hwy 299 and located within the Fall River Joint School District. This home sits on a double lot with it's own separate parcel number perfect for development potential, extra yard space or even a shop. Enjoy the charming town of Burney, CA just a few minutes away and the larger community of Redding within 1 hr.

7. 2026-01-22
   price $115,000 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Charming chalet-style home with tons of potential. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath property offers 576 square feet of comfortable living space in the desirable Johnson Park area, close to Hwy 299 and located within the Fall River Joint School District. This home sits on a double lot with it's own separate parcel number perfect for development potential, extra yard space or even a shop. Enjoy the charming town of Burney, CA just a few minutes away and the larger community of Redding within 1 hr.

8. 2025-12-09
   listed $125,000 Active 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Charming chalet-style home with tons of potential. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath property offers 576 square feet of comfortable living space in the desirable Johnson Park area, close to Hwy 299 and located within the Fall River Joint School District. This home sits on a double lot with it's own separate parcel number perfect for development potential, extra yard space or even a shop. Enjoy the charming town of Burney, CA just a few minutes away and the larger community of Redding within 1 hr.

9. 2022-08-18
   soldstatus $100,000 Closed 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Charming cottage with two parcels totaling . 18 acres. One of the parcels has hwy. 299 frontage! This sweet little 1 bedroom, 1 bath home has had roof and windows replaced, a nice size living area and kitchen comes with natural gas range. Affordable home!

10. 2022-08-18
    soldstatus $100,000

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Charming cottage with two parcels totaling . 18 acres. One of the parcels has hwy. 299 frontage! This sweet little 1 bedroom, 1 bath home has had roof and windows replaced, a nice size living area and kitchen comes with natural gas range. Affordable home!

11. 2022-07-11
    status Pending 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Charming cottage with two parcels totaling . 18 acres. One of the parcels has hwy. 299 frontage! This sweet little 1 bedroom, 1 bath home has had roof and windows replaced, a nice size living area and kitchen comes with natural gas range. Affordable home!

12. 2022-04-11
    listed $100,000 Active 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Charming cottage with two parcels totaling . 18 acres. One of the parcels has hwy. 299 frontage! This sweet little 1 bedroom, 1 bath home has had roof and windows replaced, a nice size living area and kitchen comes with natural gas range. Affordable home!

13. 2002-12-26
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$150
• After-tax cash flow: $2,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fall River Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613470
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,991
• Composite: 26.57/100
• National rank: #7186
• State rank: #335 of 517 in CA

Livability — Johnson Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,929

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.44%
• Current HPI: 165.4515
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+386.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $107,000 SAOR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $115,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-09 Listed $125,000 SAOR
• 2022-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-18 Sold (MLS) $100,000 SAOR
• 2022-07-11 Pending — SAOR
• 2022-04-11 Listed $100,000 SAOR
• 2002-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.