Jefferson Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$384,999

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan consisting of a stylish kitchen, dining room and family room on the first floor. A convenient bedroom is located toward the back of the home, perfect as a guest suite or home office. Five additional bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the luxurious owner's suite, surrounding a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• Versatile loft space
• Stylish kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $384,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Jefferson plan); Located in Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area 2463

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Jefferson)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,150/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $314,966 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-40,917
• Equity at exit: $92,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-19,728
• Equity at exit: $95,896

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$481 /mo · $5,775/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,368

Max offer price $360,051

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $-39	+0% $-172	+5% $-305	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-297	+0% $-172	+5% $-48	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-74	base $-172	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $384,999 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,999 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,999 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,999 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,999 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $384,999 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,999 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $384,999 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,999 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,999 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,999 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,999 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $384,999 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,775
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,024
• − Management: −$3,024
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$8,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,092
• After-tax cash flow: $23/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern two-story home features a well-maintained interior and exterior, with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace window screens — New screens improve comfort and energy efficiency for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — New screens improve comfort and energy efficiency for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B