Jefferson Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$384,999

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · SingleFamily · 197 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan consisting of a stylish kitchen, dining room and family room on the first floor. A convenient bedroom is located toward the back of the home, perfect as a guest suite or home office. Five additional bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the peaceful owner's suite, all surrounding a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• Versatile loft space
• Stylish kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $384,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $594,178.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,960/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $295,998 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.75%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $594,178
• List price: $384,999
• Delta: -35.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4758 Espiritu Way	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-2)	1,933 (-22%)	4mo	$420,000	$217	62
4914 Seton Way	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-2)	2,478 (+1%)	3mo	$499,000	$201	51
4149 Madison St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,959 (-20%)	1mo	$399,000	$204	46
4285 Reverence Pl	0.87mi	4/3.0 (-2)	2,298 (-7%)	0mo	$480,000	$209	43
4450 Steinbeck Way	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,760 (-28%)	5mo	$459,000	$261	41
4357 Steinbeck Way	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,760 (-28%)	5mo	$430,000	$244	39
5927 Sunningdale St	1.96mi	4/3.0 (-2)	2,247 (-9%)	4mo	$560,000	$249	37
4386 Battlecreek Way	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-2)	2,717 (+10%)	4mo	$550,000	$202	34
5508 Whistling Straights Ct	1.47mi	4/3.0 (-2)	2,755 (+12%)	3mo	$830,000	$301	33
4290 Reverence Pl	0.86mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,915 (+18%)	0mo	$530,000	$182	33
5102 Genoa St	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-2)	3,086 (+25%)	2mo	$585,000	$190	30
4300 Arlington Dr	0.81mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,828 (-26%)	3mo	$450,000	$246	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-158,730
• Equity at exit: $142,053

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-236,563
• Equity at exit: $147,998

Cash invested: $166,370 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,000 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 179 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +37.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,116
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$743 /mo · $8,913/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-1,768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,198

Max offer price $338,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,357	-5% $-1,563	+0% $-1,768	+5% $-1,973	+10% $-2,178
Rent	-10% $-2,002	-5% $-1,885	+0% $-1,768	+5% $-1,651	+10% $-1,534
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,469	-0.5pp $-1,617	base $-1,768	+0.5pp $-1,922	+1.0pp $-2,078

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,545
• Closing costs: $17,825
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $384,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Jefferson plan)Located in Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area 2463

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Jefferson)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $384,999 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $384,999 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $384,999 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $384,999 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $384,999 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $384,999 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $384,999 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $384,999 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $384,999 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $384,999 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $384,999 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $384,999 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $384,999 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $384,999 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $384,999 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $384,999 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $384,999 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $384,999 Active 170 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $384,999 Active 169 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $384,999 Active 168 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $384,999 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $384,999 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $384,999 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $384,999 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $384,999 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $384,999 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $384,999 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $384,999 Active 159 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $384,999 Active 158 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    remarks 386-char remark
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $384,999 Active 156 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $384,999 Active 155 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $384,999 Active 154 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $384,999 Active 153 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $384,999 Active 152 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $384,999 Active 151 DOM
37. 2026-08-07
    days on market $384,999 Active 150 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $384,999 Active 149 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $384,999 Active 148 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $384,999 Active 147 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $384,999 Active 146 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $384,999 Active 143 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $384,999 Active 142 DOM
44. 2026-07-29
    days on market $384,999 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-07-27
    days on market $384,999 Active 139 DOM
46. 2026-07-25
    days on market $384,999 Active 137 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $384,999 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $384,999 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $384,999 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $384,999 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,283
• − Property taxes: −$8,913
• − Insurance: −$2,971
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,842
• − Management: −$2,842
• − Depreciation: −$17,285
• Taxable loss: −$32,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,315–$36,945 screening

This modern two-story home features a well-maintained interior and exterior, with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — New screens improve comfort and energy efficiency for renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $384,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Jefferson plan)Located in Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area 2463

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Jefferson)