20054 SW 123rd Dr · South Miami Heights, FL 33177

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,202 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1976 $150/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own or invest this beautiful 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms townhouse 2-story, corner unit in the corner cluster in a gated community. Roof was done in 2020. Balcony and great screen enclosed back patio for relaxing evenings. Two assigned parking spaces right in front of the unit. Access to major highways, shopping, and schools.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Access to schools
• Access to shopping

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SCREEN ENCLOSED BACK PATIO
• TWO ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Association fee of $150 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Detached garage
• Home design: 2-story residence; Entry on level 2; Resale property
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Detached carport; Detached garage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-666/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in South Miami Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in FL, #2,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 227 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $330k implies a 573% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,329 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-64,643
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-90,489
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33177

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,783/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $320,194

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $38	+0% $-56	+5% $-149	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-169	+0% $-56	+5% $58	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $28	base $-56	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20033 SW 123rd Dr Miami, FL	4.0	2.0	1313	$3,000	$2.28	23d	1	0.07mi
20033 SW 123rd Dr Miami, FL	4.0	2.0	1313	$2,800	$2.13	4d	1	0.07mi
12235 SW 202nd St Unit 12235 Miami, FL	3.0	1.0	1125	$2,750	$2.44	25d	1	0.10mi
12230 SW 203rd St Miami, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,800	$2.67	5d	1	0.20mi
12230 SW 203rd St Miami, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,800	$2.67	25d	1	0.20mi
12230 SW 203rd St Miami, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,800	$2.67	4d	1	0.20mi
12275 Quail Roost Dr Miami, FL	4.0	1.5	1296	$3,200	$2.47	25d	1	0.22mi
20521 SW 125th Ave Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$3,300	$2.41	25d	1	0.33mi
19426 SW 125th Ave Unit 0 Miami, FL	3.0	3.0	1436	$3,650	$2.54	25d	1	0.38mi
20620 SW 120th Pl Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$3,400	$2.49	25d	1	0.45mi
12552 SW 194th St Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$3,550	$2.47	25d	1	0.49mi
20912 SW 125th Avenue Rd Miami, FL	3.0	1.5	1430	$3,100	$2.17	25d	1	0.56mi
12621 SW 210th Ter Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,800	$2.21	23d	1	0.63mi
12618 SW 211th Ter Miami, FL	2.0	1.0	1177	$2,500	$2.12	25d	1	0.72mi
12021 SW 191st St Unit 2 Miami, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,200	$1.83	25d	1	0.73mi
11882 SW 209th Ter Miami, FL	2.0	1.0	1365	$2,000	$1.47	5d	1	0.73mi
11920 SW 212th St Unit 11920 Miami, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	9d	1	0.83mi
11840 SW 212th St Unit 11840 Miami, FL	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	25d	1	0.88mi
12233 SW 215th Ter Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1142	$2,600	$2.28	25d	1	0.92mi
21511 SW 122nd Ct Miami, FL	2.0	1.0	1182	$2,000	$1.69	9d	1	0.92mi
21511 SW 122nd Ct Miami, FL	2.0	1.0	1182	$2,000	$1.69	25d	1	0.92mi
19841 SW 114th Ave #310 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	25d	1	1.01mi
19751 SW 114th Ave Unit 347 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	25d	1	1.01mi
19751 SW 114th Ave #349 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,790	$2.24	6d	1	1.01mi
19729 SW 114th Ave #150 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,980	$2.48	9d	1	1.01mi
19715 SW 114th Ave #352 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	25d	1	1.01mi
19729 SW 114th Ave #250 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,675	$2.09	12d	1	1.01mi
19751 SW 114th Ave Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,812	$2.27	19d	2	1.01mi
19771 SW 114th Ave #328 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	19d	1	1.01mi
19791 SW 114th Ave Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	9d	2	1.01mi
19729 SW 114th Ave #150 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,980	$2.48	23d	1	1.01mi
11307 SW 200th St Unit 106B Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,900	$2.26	22d	1	1.08mi
11309 SW 200th St Unit 103C Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$2,100	$2.50	25d	1	1.09mi
11850 SW 187th St Miami, FL	4.0	2.0	1488	$3,600	$2.42	18d	1	1.11mi
11800 SW 216th St Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,475	$2.04	22d	1	1.11mi
11611 SW 215th St Unit 11611 Miami, FL	2.0	1.0	756	$2,000	$2.65	25d	1	1.16mi
21850 Old Dixie Hwy Miami, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	907	$2,399	$2.64	0d	4	1.18mi
11750 SW 186th St Miami, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$2,400	$2.78	21d	1	1.22mi
11750 SW 186th St Miami, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$2,400	$2.78	0d	1	1.22mi
11531 SW 187th St Miami, FL	4.0	2.0	1368	$3,200	$2.34	25d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: securityparking

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 347-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $330,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$3,783
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,768
• − Management: −$2,768
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Miami Heights

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #2539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Miami Heights, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 59,056
• Household income: $82,682
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 43% Black 13% White 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 43% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 50% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 73% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.18%
• Current HPI: 474.8023
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.27%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+560.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $330,000 MARMLS
• 1994-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1984-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,783 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.