149 Horseshoe Cir · Allardt, TN 38556

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,791 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1974 1.03 ac lot $117/sqft · at area comps Est $219k · at est. ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable living meets peaceful country charm with this well-maintained home located on a quiet dead-end road. Featuring a spacious level yard shaded by mature trees, there's plenty of room for gardening, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing and enjoying the scenery. Inside, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a warm and inviting layout with an open feel between the kitchen and bonus room. Add your very own touch & taste to make this your own. The kitchen features an island for added workspace and seating, while the bonus room showcases a cozy gas fireplace--perfect for gathering with family and friends. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and everyday

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Spacious level yard
• Quiet dead-end road

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• SPACIOUS LEVEL YARD
• MATURE TREES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Residential crossmod
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Garden; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Allardt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#194 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fentress County (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #91 of 139 in TN (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fentress County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $173k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,638 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,544
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -3.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1043 Ray Brown Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-2%)	2mo	$70,000	$40	72
1671 Taylor Place Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,660 (-7%)	13mo	$130,000	$78	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $99,770
• Equity at exit: $189,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $305,354
• Equity at exit: $407,984

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38556

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $176,773

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   listing id $210,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $210,000 Active 908-char remark
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $210,000 Active 902-char remark
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $210,000 Active
19. 2026-04-08
    soldstatus $173,250
20. 2026-04-03
    soldstatus $173,250 Closed
21. 2026-03-12
    status Pending
22. 2026-02-18
    listed Active
23. 2026-01-31
    historical
24. 2025-10-17
    price $237,000
25. 2025-06-30
    price $299,000
26. 2025-03-12
    price $350,000
27. 2024-11-20
    listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$6,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,556
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fentress County
• NCES district ID: 4701230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $30,419
• Composite: 20.6/100
• National rank: #8552
• State rank: #91 of 139 in TN

Livability — Allardt

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #15311

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Allardt, TN
• Population (ZIP): 12,531

Population outlook (Fentress County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,295 people
• By 2030: 16,749 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 15,443 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 14,077 · -18.6%
• By 2075: 11,482 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 9,658 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fentress

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.8% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.9pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+71.3 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+53.4 2008: R+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.31%
• Current HPI: 372.5676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-47.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $210,000 UCMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $210,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $210,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $173,250 Public Records
• 2026-04-03 Sold (MLS) $173,250 UCMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — UCMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed — UCMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $237,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $299,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $350,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $399,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.