338 Lucia Way · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$148,890

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Crestmore Collection "Whiles" Plan with Elevation "C". This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner’s suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association (Houston El Norte Prop Assoc.); HOA fee $120 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all primary living areas on the first floor); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Open kitchen with island; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 11); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Tub with shower

🏗️ New construction. The $148,890 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $183,616.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($302/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $146,656 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,616
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381 Lucia Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,208 (0%)	1mo	$172,990	$143	97
378 Lucia Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,208 (0%)	1mo	$174,990	$145	97
385 Lucia Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,049 (-13%)	1mo	$170,991	$163	75
382 Lucia Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-14%)	0mo	$156,990	$152	73
338 Road 5840 Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	1mo	$172,000	$127	54
662 Road 5846	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+6%)	6mo	$255,000	$200	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-26,441
• Equity at exit: $27,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,807
• Equity at exit: $15,876

Cash invested: $51,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$963
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,754/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $183,616

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $89	+0% $25	+5% $-38	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-40	+0% $25	+5% $90	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $72	base $25	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,904
• Closing costs: $5,508
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	0d	1	0.66mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	17d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $148,890 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,890 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,890 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,890 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,890 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,890 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,890 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,890 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $148,890 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 459-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $148,890 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,285
• − Property taxes: −$2,754
• − Insurance: −$918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,342
• Taxable loss: −$2,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$667
• After-tax cash flow: $969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in the Santa Fe Village Community is in excellent condition with a modern, low-maintenance layout. It is move-in ready and would benefit from exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $148,890 HARMLS