322 Hays Rd · Oyster Creek, TX 77541

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2000 7,501 sqft lot $111/sqft · 24% above area Est $69k · 24% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Swing by to see this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home full of potential! Featuring a privacy fence surrounding the property and a spacious 16x24 storage building—perfect for extra storage or a workshop. This home does need some TLC and has a few unfinished projects, making it a great opportunity for someone ready to add their own personal touches. Recent updates include two mini-split systems, plus a roof and windows replaced in 2022 with windstorm certification. Being sold as-is and priced to sell—come make it your own!

Key facts

• Storage building
• Mini-split systems
• Privacy fence

Tags

• PRIVACY FENCE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEMS
• ROOF REPLACED
• WINDOWS REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 0.7% in Oyster Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,483 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 590 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,748
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 23.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,126
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $24,648
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77541

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,286/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    price $85,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Swing by to see this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home full of potential! Featuring a privacy fence surrounding the property and a spacious 16x24 storage building—perfect for extra storage or a workshop. This home does need some TLC and has a few unfinished projects, making it a great opportunity for someone ready to add their own personal touches. Recent updates include two mini-split systems, plus a roof and windows replaced in 2022 with windstorm certification. Being sold as-is and priced to sell—come make it your own!

11. 2026-03-23
    listed $99,900 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Swing by to see this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home full of potential! Featuring a privacy fence surrounding the property and a spacious 16x24 storage building—perfect for extra storage or a workshop. This home does need some TLC and has a few unfinished projects, making it a great opportunity for someone ready to add their own personal touches. Recent updates include two mini-split systems, plus a roof and windows replaced in 2022 with windstorm certification. Being sold as-is and priced to sell—come make it your own!

12. 2018-10-30
    soldstatus
13. 2018-10-29
    soldstatus Sold 43-char remark

    Show marketing remark (43 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 bath home with nice size yard.

14. 2018-10-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (43 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 bath home with nice size yard.

15. 2018-10-11
    status Pending 43-char remark

    Show marketing remark (43 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 bath home with nice size yard.

16. 2018-10-09
    listed $35,000 Active 43-char remark

    Show marketing remark (43 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 bath home with nice size yard.

17. 2018-10-09
    listed $35,000

    Show marketing remark (43 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 bath home with nice size yard.

18. 1997-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$270/yr (+$22/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,286
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $2,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oyster Creek

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1483
• US rank: #25420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Creek, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,996
• Household income: $66,507
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 38% Two or more races 23% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.12%
• Current HPI: 265.9301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+142.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2018-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-29 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2018-10-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-09 Listed $35,000 BCBR
• 2018-10-09 Listed $35,000 HARMLS
• 1997-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,286 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.