507 1st Avenue Ext · East Frankfort, NY 13340

$198,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1995 6,240 sqft lot Est $215k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Start packing! This home is ready to move in! Totally redone-new roof, new kitchen, new bath, new flooring, sliders to deck, great yard, and low cost. Municipal electric heat.

Key facts

• 6,240 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (no garage)
• Security: Radon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing/resale condition; Architectural shingle roof; Facing city street
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Insulated attic/crawl hatchway(s); Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open porch; Deck; Shed/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Frankfort-Schuyler Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #538 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $199k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $150,000 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 1st Avenue Ext	0.00mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	1mo	$215,100	$224	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $93,942
• Equity at exit: $179,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $288,080
• Equity at exit: $386,419

Cash invested: $55,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13340

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,428/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $158,876

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,725
• Closing costs: $5,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 W North St Ilion, NY	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,500	$1.42	43d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-07
   listed $198,900 Active
4. 2019-09-26
   soldstatus $120,840 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Start packing! This home is ready to move in! Totally redone-new roof, new kitchen, new bath, new flooring, sliders to deck, great yard, and low cost. Municipal electric heat.

5. 2018-10-22
   listed $126,000 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Start packing! This home is ready to move in! Totally redone-new roof, new kitchen, new bath, new flooring, sliders to deck, great yard, and low cost. Municipal electric heat.

6. 2018-10-18
   historical
7. 2018-07-19
   listed $132,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,428 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,428 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,141
• − Property taxes: −$3,428
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,786
• Taxable loss: −$6,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frankfort-Schuyler Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611400
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,499
• Composite: 32.87/100
• National rank: #5610
• State rank: #538 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Frankfort

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,322

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.15%
• Current HPI: 336.077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+49.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-11 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $198,900 CNYIS
• 2019-09-26 Sold (MLS) $120,840 CNYIS
• 2018-10-22 Listed $126,000 CNYIS
• 2018-10-18 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-07-19 Listed $132,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,428 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.