126 NW Wrightwood Cir · Grants Pass, OR 97526

$84,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1996 $63/sqft · 25% below area Est $113k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great, affordable home in one of our most popular 55+ Parks! From the sparkling kitchen to the rich living room to the stately office, you'll look forward to relaxing at home and retiring to the privacy of your primary bedroom and bathroom with its double vanities, inviting soaking tub, and efficient shower. With stately trees, green landscaping, carport, and handy patio, this is relaxing, easy care senior living at its best! All information is deemed reliable but not verified; anyone considering purchasing this property should perform their own investigation into the uses an condition of the property.

Key facts

• Stately office
• Sparkling kitchen
• Inviting soaking tub

Tags

• SPARKLING KITCHEN
• RICH LIVING ROOM
• STATELY OFFICE
• PRIVACY OF PRIMARY BEDROOM
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• INVITING SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 3.2% in Grants Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#137 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.15%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,000
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -24.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 NW Wrightwood Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,242 (-8%)	12mo	$115,000	$93	74
217 NW Creekside Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	21mo	$160,000	$123	74
2325 NW Highland Ave #39	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,337 (-0%)	15mo	$95,000	$71	71
2325 NW Highland Ave #56	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	8mo	$60,000	$46	71
107 NW Wrightwood Cir	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,154 (-14%)	4mo	$80,000	$69	69
221 NW Creekside Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+13%)	8mo	$156,000	$103	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $40,211
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $99,742
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97526

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,267/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $923	-5% $899	+0% $875	+5% $851	+10% $827
Rent	-10% $729	-5% $802	+0% $875	+5% $948	+10% $1,021
Rate	-1.0pp $917	-0.5pp $896	base $875	+0.5pp $853	+1.0pp $830

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1950 NW Michelle Way Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1074	$2,100	$1.96	44d	1	0.41mi
347 NW Pleasant View Dr Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.86mi
753 NW Kinney St Grants Pass, OR	2.0	2.0	958	$1,750	$1.83	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-03-31
    listed $91,500 Active 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Great, affordable home in one of our most popular 55+ Parks! From the sparkling kitchen to the rich living room to the stately office, you'll look forward to relaxing at home and retiring to the privacy of your primary bedroom and bathroom with its double vanities, inviting soaking tub, and efficient shower. With stately trees, green landscaping, carport, and handy patio, this is relaxing, easy care senior living at its best! All information is deemed reliable but not verified; anyone considering purchasing this property should perform their own investigation into the uses an condition of the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,267
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $9,723
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,334
• After-tax cash flow: $8,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants Pass SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4105910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,433
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #7281
• State rank: #66 of 183 in OR

Livability — Grants Pass

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #7900

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grants Pass, OR
• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• City population: 73,366
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 36,036
• Household income: $61,019
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1407.0

Population outlook (Josephine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,883 people
• By 2030: 89,055 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 90,396 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 90,801 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 89,880 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 81,252 · -7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Josephine

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.1) · D 34.2% · R 63.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.2pp · 2024: -29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.1 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.77%
• Current HPI: 326.3247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $91,500 MLSCO

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,267 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.