1031 Ridge Rd · Nixon, TN 38372

$69,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1905

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 4.77 acres in Hardin County, just 8 minutes past Pickwick Dam, this charming 1905 home is a diamond in the rough. With over 1,000 square feet, the house features 2 bedrooms and is already plumbed for a full bathroom and laundry room. New sub flooring has been installed, the foundation has been inspected and repaired, and it’s equipped with electricity and a well. The property also includes a chicken coop and 2 lean-tos. While it needs some work, this property offers endless potential to create your dream home in a peaceful, rural setting.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1905
• Listed 114 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($840 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hardin County (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 385 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $63,699 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.32%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $48,874
• Equity at exit: $63,061

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $135,527
• Equity at exit: $135,993

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38372

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 385
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $69,999

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-01-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-17
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-16
   historical
6. 2026-01-16
   historical
7. 2026-01-16
   historical
8. 2026-01-16
   historical
9. 2025-12-26
   listed Active
10. 2025-12-26
    listed Active
11. 2025-12-26
    listed Active
12. 2025-12-26
    listed Active
13. 2025-12-22
    historical
14. 2025-12-22
    historical
15. 2025-12-22
    historical
16. 2025-12-22
    historical
17. 2025-01-17
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
18. 2024-12-12
    status Pending
19. 2024-12-10
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2024-11-01
    price $64,999
21. 2024-09-25
    price $69,999
22. 2024-09-25
    price $69,999
23. 2024-09-16
    status Active
24. 2024-09-16
    status Active
25. 2024-09-09
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2024-09-09
    status Pending
27. 2024-08-13
    listed $75,000 Active
28. 2024-08-13
    listed $75,000 Active
29. 2024-08-12
    historical $75,000
30. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $1,100,000
31. 2015-03-16
    soldstatus $42,000 Closed
32. 2015-02-17
    status Pending
33. 2014-12-12
    listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$806
• − Management: −$806
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$234
• After-tax cash flow: $1,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 4701680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,404
• Composite: 22.64/100
• National rank: #8061
• State rank: #76 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nixon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nixon, TN
• Population (ZIP): 17,659

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,740 people
• By 2030: 23,971 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,284 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 20,612 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 17,072 · -31.0%
• By 2100: 13,723 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.1% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+67.5 2016: R+64.2 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.20%
• Current HPI: 293.51
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Pending — CWTAR
• 2024-12-10 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $64,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $69,999 CWTAR
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $69,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-16 Relisted — CWTAR
• 2024-09-16 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-09 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-09 Pending — CWTAR
• 2024-08-13 Listed $75,000 CWTAR
• 2024-08-13 Listed $75,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-12 Coming Soon $75,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-16 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2015-02-17 Pending — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2014-12-12 Listed $49,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.