51 S Marsh St · Washington, MI 48419

$90,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

0.62 ac lot $45/sqft · 43% below area Est $158k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath farmhouse located in the village of Carsonville situated on a nice size city lot. Tons of potential. Natural Gas with city water/sewer. This spacious home is awaiting new owners to make it their own. Call to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carsonville-Port Sanilac School District (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #498 of 760 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,380
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -43.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 S High St	0.12mi	5/1.5 (+1)	2,085 (+4%)	14mo	$137,000	$66	71
3927 W Sheldon Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (-10%)	12mo	$35,000	$19	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $9,575
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $39,624
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48419

• Home prices YoY: -6.8%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,193/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $876

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-20
   price $90,000 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath farmhouse located in the village of Carsonville situated on a nice size city lot. Tons of potential. Natural Gas with city water/sewer. This spacious home is awaiting new owners to make it their own. Call to schedule a showing today!

2. 2026-02-20
   price $90,000 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath farmhouse located in the village of Carsonville situated on a nice size city lot. Tons of potential. Natural Gas with city water/sewer. This spacious home is awaiting new owners to make it their own. Call to schedule a showing today!

3. 2026-02-19
   listed $89,900 Active 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath farmhouse located in the village of Carsonville situated on a nice size city lot. Tons of potential. Natural Gas with city water/sewer. This spacious home is awaiting new owners to make it their own. Call to schedule a showing today!

4. 2026-02-19
   listed $89,900 Active 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath farmhouse located in the village of Carsonville situated on a nice size city lot. Tons of potential. Natural Gas with city water/sewer. This spacious home is awaiting new owners to make it their own. Call to schedule a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,193 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,193 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,193
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$806
• After-tax cash flow: $3,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carsonville-Port Sanilac School District
• NCES district ID: 2608160
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $40,981
• Composite: 30.12/100
• National rank: #11603
• State rank: #498 of 760 in MI

Livability — Washington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carsonville, MI
• City population: 20,736
• Population (ZIP): 2,309

Population outlook (Sanilac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,948 people
• By 2030: 35,772 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 30,996 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,280 · -30.7%
• By 2075: 17,471 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 10,572 · -72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sanilac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.5% · R 73.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.27%
• Current HPI: 223.5117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-19 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-19 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,193 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.