2855 W Florence Rd Rd · Freeport, IL 61032

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1948 0.38 ac lot $54/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your tools and ideas and turn this rural home and land into your own little homestead! With some TLC, the possibilities are endless!

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1948

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story house
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot on a 0.38-acre parcel

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Gas water heater; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 5.8% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#302 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Freeport SD 145 (town): math 11% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #565 of 620 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Freeport High School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #479 of 693 statewide, top 71%, 1,080 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Stephenson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stephenson County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.46%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,261
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -71.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $25,790
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $67,142
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61032

• Home prices YoY: -19.5%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $560	+0% $545	+5% $529	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $500	+0% $545	+5% $590	+10% $635
Rate	-1.0pp $573	-0.5pp $559	base $545	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $60,000 Active 139-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $488 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$380/yr (+$32/mo · 77.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $5,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freeport SD 145
• NCES district ID: 1715900
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,803
• Composite: 9.89/100
• National rank: #9821
• State rank: #565 of 620 in IL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #5927

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,072

Population outlook (Stephenson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,802 people
• By 2030: 39,487 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 34,534 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 29,693 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 21,196 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 14,596 · -65.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephenson

• 2024 margin: R (+19.4) · D 39.5% · R 58.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: 6.7pp · 2024: -19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.4 2020: R+15.7 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+4.6 2008: D+6.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.75%
• Current HPI: 163.677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $60,000 NWIAR

Property tax history

-14.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $488 · +52.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.