247 Oliver · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1905 6,599 sqft lot Est $211k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1905

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,220
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
247 Oliver	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,180 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	99
223 Schenck St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+9%)	2mo	$169,400	$132	74
286 Bryant St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,117 (-5%)	3mo	$180,500	$162	68
268 Tremont St	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+4%)	7mo	$225,000	$183	65
29 1st Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (-3%)	4mo	$76,000	$67	61
376 Miller St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	9mo	$220,000	$179	54
296 Niagara St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+10%)	8mo	$265,000	$203	52
19 5th Ave	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,145 (-3%)	6mo	$197,000	$172	50
355 Bryant St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,003 (-15%)	10mo	$191,400	$191	48
226 Wheatfield St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+12%)	10mo	$216,000	$163	48
287 Shartle Pl	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,054 (-11%)	12mo	$209,000	$198	40
34 Center Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-15%)	9mo	$221,000	$219	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,455
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $46,858
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,731/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	1d	1	0.41mi
399 Miller St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	23d	1	0.62mi
125 3rd Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.67mi
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	1d	12	0.73mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	1d	1	0.80mi
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.88mi
317 Hedwig Dr Unit N North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	10d	1	1.11mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	1.17mi
705 Sandra Ln North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	1d	9	1.18mi
900 E Robinson St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	1d	1	1.44mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	1.46mi
60 Fredericka St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-17
   listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,040 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,731
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$353
• After-tax cash flow: $3,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $139,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,731 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.