19922 Big Timber Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$249,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1985 6,298 sqft lot $123/sqft · at area comps Est $243k · at est. $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER HIGHLY MOTIVATED TO SELL! Submit your offer today. Welcome to this beautiful two-story home offering space, comfort, and an ideal location! Featuring two spacious living areas, this home provides the perfect layout for entertaining guests or creating a separate family and formal living space. The kitchen is designed to impress with elegant granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace for everyday cooking and gatherings. Step outside to enjoy the private patio deck -perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or morning coffee in a peaceful setting. Nestled in a serene neighborhood, this property offers a quiet retreat while still being conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday conveniences. Located in a highly desirable school district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Private patio deck
• Two story home
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE PATIO DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $250k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,934 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,566
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 3.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19922 Big Timber Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,035 (0%)	1mo	$249,900	$123	100
20022 River Brook Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,904 (-6%)	4mo	$314,995	$165	81
5702 Deer Timbers Trl	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,189 (+8%)	4mo	$289,900	$132	74
5514 Fawn Trail Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,863 (-8%)	3mo	$250,000	$134	73
20113 Dawn Mist Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,951 (-4%)	5mo	$249,800	$128	72
20207 Misty Pines Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (-6%)	2mo	$199,900	$105	70
20923 Lake Park Trl Trl	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,056 (+1%)	1mo	$285,000	$139	69
20018 Big Timber Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-14%)	3mo	$219,800	$125	63
20843 Fawn Timber Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-10%)	3mo	$305,000	$166	54
19511 Oak Center Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,154 (+6%)	6mo	$250,000	$116	52
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,292 (+13%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	46
20831 Greenfield Trl	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+14%)	4mo	$329,000	$141	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-32,663
• Equity at exit: $60,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,187
• Equity at exit: $64,391

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$467 /mo · $5,600/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,410

Max offer price $227,415

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	43d	1	0.19mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	43d	1	0.30mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	5d	1	0.61mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	43d	1	0.66mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	43d	1	0.73mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	0.75mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	16	0.86mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	0.92mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	0.96mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	22d	1	1.02mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	43d	1	1.02mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	5d	1	1.17mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	24d	1	1.33mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	43d	1	1.35mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,856	$1.23	2d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   SELLER HIGHLY MOTIVATED TO SELL! Submit your offer today. Welcome to this beautiful two-story home offering space, comfort, and an ideal location! Featuring two spacious living areas, this home provides the perfect layout for entertaining guests or creating a separate family and formal living space. The kitchen is designed to impress with elegant granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace for everyday cooking and gatherings. Step outside to enjoy the private patio deck -perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or morning coffee in a peaceful setting. Nestled in a serene neighborhood, this property offers a quiet retreat while still being conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday conveniences. Located in a highly desirable school district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location. Schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   SELLER HIGHLY MOTIVATED TO SELL! Submit your offer today. Welcome to this beautiful two-story home offering space, comfort, and an ideal location! Featuring two spacious living areas, this home provides the perfect layout for entertaining guests or creating a separate family and formal living space. The kitchen is designed to impress with elegant granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace for everyday cooking and gatherings. Step outside to enjoy the private patio deck -perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or morning coffee in a peaceful setting. Nestled in a serene neighborhood, this property offers a quiet retreat while still being conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday conveniences. Located in a highly desirable school district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location. Schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-03-18
   price $249,900 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   SELLER HIGHLY MOTIVATED TO SELL! Submit your offer today. Welcome to this beautiful two-story home offering space, comfort, and an ideal location! Featuring two spacious living areas, this home provides the perfect layout for entertaining guests or creating a separate family and formal living space. The kitchen is designed to impress with elegant granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace for everyday cooking and gatherings. Step outside to enjoy the private patio deck -perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or morning coffee in a peaceful setting. Nestled in a serene neighborhood, this property offers a quiet retreat while still being conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday conveniences. Located in a highly desirable school district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location. Schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-02-16
   listed $255,000 Active 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   SELLER HIGHLY MOTIVATED TO SELL! Submit your offer today. Welcome to this beautiful two-story home offering space, comfort, and an ideal location! Featuring two spacious living areas, this home provides the perfect layout for entertaining guests or creating a separate family and formal living space. The kitchen is designed to impress with elegant granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace for everyday cooking and gatherings. Step outside to enjoy the private patio deck -perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or morning coffee in a peaceful setting. Nestled in a serene neighborhood, this property offers a quiet retreat while still being conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday conveniences. Located in a highly desirable school district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location. Schedule your private showing today!

5. 2025-12-24
   historical
6. 2025-12-16
   price $260,000
7. 2025-11-14
   price $265,000
8. 2025-10-07
   price $269,000
9. 2025-07-09
   status Active
10. 2025-07-09
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2025-06-26
    status Pending
12. 2025-06-26
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2025-06-22
    listed $270,000 Active
14. 2025-06-20
    historical
15. 2025-03-25
    price $270,000
16. 2025-02-04
    price $275,000
17. 2025-01-21
    listed $279,900 Active
18. 2024-09-04
    historical
19. 2024-08-20
    price $280,000
20. 2024-08-17
    price $269,900
21. 2024-04-28
    listed $280,000 Active
22. 2006-09-28
    soldstatus
23. 2006-09-16
    historical
24. 2006-09-06
    listed $99,900
25. 2006-09-05
    historical
26. 2006-02-08
    listed $104,900
27. 2004-09-16
    soldstatus
28. 1996-12-03
    soldstatus
29. 1992-05-01
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,600 · $467/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,600 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,600
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $-155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+220.4% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-22 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-17 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2024-04-28 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2006-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-09-06 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2006-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-02-08 Listed $104,900 HARMLS
• 2004-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,600 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.