1821 Rhonda Rd · Chino Valley, AZ 86323

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1971 8,008 sqft lot $208/sqft · 39% above area Est $116k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate. The home is in need of some TLC,but the seller is motivated and ready to sell!

Key facts

• 8,008 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-945/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in Chino Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#154 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Territorial Early Childhood Center (634 students, 54% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #96 of 218 statewide, top 44%, 536 students, 54% FRL); Chino Valley High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 789 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $160k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.11%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,625
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 38.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
630 Margaret Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	785 (+2%)	20mo	$199,000	$254	54
898 N James Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	799 (+4%)	16mo	$140,000	$175	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-30,921
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-33,302
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86323

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $148,609

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-23	+0% $-79	+5% $-134	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-130	+0% $-79	+5% $-27	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-38	base $-79	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1532 Bottle Brush Dr Chino Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	925	$1,300	$1.41	22d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-03-16
   listed $160,000 Active 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   This property is a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate. The home is in need of some TLC,but the seller is motivated and ready to sell!

10. 2022-09-06
    soldstatus $102,000 Closed 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

11. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus $102,000
12. 2022-08-06
    status Pending 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

13. 2022-07-26
    status Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

14. 2022-07-26
    price $119,000 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

15. 2022-07-19
    historical Active with Contingency 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

16. 2022-07-12
    price $114,000 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

17. 2022-06-21
    status Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

18. 2022-06-14
    status Pending 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

19. 2022-06-13
    price $118,000 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

20. 2022-06-07
    listed $128,000 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Manufactured home just minutes from local shopping in the heart of Chino Valley! This 2 bed, 2 bath home features a split floor plan, mature shade trees, a fully fenced in yard and a large covered patio on the rear! Come check it out today!

21. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus $100,000
22. 1992-10-01
    soldstatus $19,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $-54/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified District (4474)
• NCES district ID: 0400003
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,429
• Composite: 25.22/100
• National rank: #7505
• State rank: #112 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chino Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #17802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chino Valley, AZ
• City population: 19,297
• Population (ZIP): 19,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.73%
• Current HPI: 410.5632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+702.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Sold (MLS) $102,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-06 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-26 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $119,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-19 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-12 Price Changed $114,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-21 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-14 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-13 Price Changed $118,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-07 Listed $128,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1992-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $303 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.