166 Forest Ridge Dr #8 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$495,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Condo public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1996 $436/sqft · 16% below area Est $589k · 16% under $495/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Checkout this exceptional opportunity for a well-appointed, upstairs end-unit condo at Forest Ridge in Lincoln, NH. This two-bedroom, two-bathroom property is perfectly positioned for a new owner to enjoy everything the White Mountains have to offer throughout all four seasons. The interior has been thoughtfully updated, featuring a remodeled custom kitchen with new appliances, a recently installed furnace, and efficient split AC units. The layout includes an expansive deck and a living room centered around a gas fireplace, both offering comforting views of the pond. Additionally, the Forest Ridge community provides some of the premier amenities and clubhouse facilities in the Loon Mountain

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Expansive deck
• $495 HOA

Tags

• UPSTAIRS END-UNIT CONDO
• REMODELED CUSTOM KITCHEN
• RECENTLY INSTALLED FURNACE
• EFFICIENT SPLIT AC UNITS
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road frontage maintained by association; Located in the Forest Ridge development
• HOA & community: Condo fees apply (monthly); HOA fee $495 monthly; HOA covers landscaping, plowing, trash, building maintenance, master insurance; Association amenities include clubhouse, exercise facility, recreation facilities, indoor heated pool, outdoor in-ground pool, hot tub, sauna, locker rooms, tennis and basketball courts, common acreage, snow removal, trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200 amp electrical service; Cable internet available; Phone service available; Cable service available; Gas - LP/Bottle and underground gas; Underground utilities
• Home design: End row/end unit; Modern architectural style; Top floor unit; Unit/Lot number 8
• Construction: Built in 1996; Wood frame construction with wood siding; Fiberglass shingle roof
• Exterior features: Condo development setting; Corner unit; Country setting with mountain and water views; Pond frontage; Walking trails nearby; Recreational opportunities nearby (golf course, skiing, snowmobile trails); Near shopping and schools; Deed restricted; Near paths

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Six total rooms; End-unit, top-floor location
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($109k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $480k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $139k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $480,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.93%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $588,865
• List price: $495,000
• Delta: -15.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $619,891
• Equity at exit: $200,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.25×
• Total profit: $1,420,228
• Equity at exit: $292,811

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,636/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$495
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,380
• Net cashflow: $9,117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,557

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Pollard Rd Unit 4 Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	43d	1	0.52mi
51 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$15,000	$15.00	43d	1	0.52mi
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	43d	1	0.80mi
48 Cooper Memorial Dr #203 Lincoln, NH	1.0	2.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	43d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $495 · $5,940/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $495,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $495,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $495,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $495,000 Active 906-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,636 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,214 · $601/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,578/yr (+$298/mo · 98.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $193,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$3,636
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,454
• − Management: −$15,454
• − HOA: −$5,940
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable income: $108,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,940
• After-tax cash flow: $83,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $495,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,636 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.