309 4th St · Allison, IA 50602

$99,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Other public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1973 5,828 sqft lot $68/sqft · 29% below area Est $144k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ranch-style home features a newer roof and A/C, offering comfort and peace of mind. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with oversized bedrooms that provide plenty of room to unwind. The open backyard includes a large deck—ideal for outdoor gatherings—and a heated garage conveniently accessed from the rear of the home. Downstairs, a generously sized, partially finished basement offers additional living and recreational space, complete with a pool table and a non-conforming third bedroom, perfect for guests, a home office, or a hobby room.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Heated garage
• Pool table

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• A/C
• LARGE DECK
• HEATED GARAGE
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• POOL TABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• North Butler Community School District (rural): math 68% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #152 of 289 in IA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,888
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -30.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $27,653
• Equity at exit: $52,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $78,453
• Equity at exit: $88,354

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50602

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,782/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $155	+0% $127	+5% $99	+10% $70
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $85	+0% $127	+5% $169	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $152	base $127	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $99,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    This ranch-style home features a newer roof and A/C, offering comfort and peace of mind. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with oversized bedrooms that provide plenty of room to unwind. The open backyard includes a large deck—ideal for outdoor gatherings—and a heated garage conveniently accessed from the rear of the home. Downstairs, a generously sized, partially finished basement offers additional living and recreational space, complete with a pool table and a non-conforming third bedroom, perfect for guests, a home office, or a hobby room.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $109,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    This ranch-style home features a newer roof and A/C, offering comfort and peace of mind. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with oversized bedrooms that provide plenty of room to unwind. The open backyard includes a large deck—ideal for outdoor gatherings—and a heated garage conveniently accessed from the rear of the home. Downstairs, a generously sized, partially finished basement offers additional living and recreational space, complete with a pool table and a non-conforming third bedroom, perfect for guests, a home office, or a hobby room.

19. 2026-04-08
    listed $114,900 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    This ranch-style home features a newer roof and A/C, offering comfort and peace of mind. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with oversized bedrooms that provide plenty of room to unwind. The open backyard includes a large deck—ideal for outdoor gatherings—and a heated garage conveniently accessed from the rear of the home. Downstairs, a generously sized, partially finished basement offers additional living and recreational space, complete with a pool table and a non-conforming third bedroom, perfect for guests, a home office, or a hobby room.

20. 2025-11-25
    price $109,900
21. 2025-11-10
    price $112,900
22. 2025-10-27
    price $117,900
23. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $90,000
24. 2018-09-05
    soldstatus $76,000
25. 2018-08-23
    soldstatus $76,000
26. 2018-04-23
    listed $79,500
27. 2015-07-21
    soldstatus $71,900
28. 2015-05-08
    listed $72,900
29. 2013-11-04
    soldstatus $65,000
30. 2006-07-10
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,782
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$52
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $1,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Butler Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1903450
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,162
• Composite: 58.96/100
• National rank: #966
• State rank: #152 of 289 in IA

Livability — Allison

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Allison, IA
• City population: 1,372
• Population (ZIP): 1,372

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,831 people
• By 2030: 14,748 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 14,456 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 14,079 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 13,041 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 10,935 · -26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.4) · D 26.7% · R 72.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.4 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.38%
• Current HPI: 193.5007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+81.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $99,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $109,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-08 Listed $114,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $109,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $112,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $117,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-23 Sold (MLS) $76,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2018-04-23 Listed $79,500 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-07-21 Sold (MLS) $71,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-05-08 Listed $72,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2013-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,782 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.