9512 Keilman St Unit 1n · St. John, IN 46373

$202,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 4,782 sqft · Condo public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1984 $250/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy yet spacious main floor condo unit is ready to be your new home. With 2 generous sized bedrooms, a large living room, efficient kitchen with dinette and newly remodeled bathroom, what's left to want?Furnace & A/C, water heater, floors - 2021, and bathroom remodel 2025. NO CARPET! All appliances stay. 1 car detached garage and cozy patio are added bonuses! Unbeatable location & functionality. Walking distance to grocery stores, Target, Welch's and the Library!

Key facts

• Efficient kitchen
• Main floor condo
• Cozy patio

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR CONDO
• EFFICIENT KITCHEN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COZY PATIO
• WALKING DISTANCE TO TARGET
• WALKING DISTANCE TO LIBRARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $203k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $203k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in St. John — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Central School Corporation (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in IN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $184,548 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.56%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,044
• Equity at exit: $30,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,405
• Equity at exit: $17,534

Cash invested: $56,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46373

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,064
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $781/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $202,800

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $273	+0% $216	+5% $158	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $132	+0% $216	+5% $300	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $267	base $216	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,700
• Closing costs: $6,084
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This cozy yet spacious main floor condo unit is ready to be your new home. With 2 generous sized bedrooms, a large living room, efficient kitchen with dinette and newly remodeled bathroom, what's left to want?Furnace & A/C, water heater, floors - 2021, and bathroom remodel 2025. NO CARPET! All appliances stay. 1 car detached garage and cozy patio are added bonuses! Unbeatable location & functionality. Walking distance to grocery stores, Target, Welch's and the Library!

2. 2026-04-26
   price $202,800 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This cozy yet spacious main floor condo unit is ready to be your new home. With 2 generous sized bedrooms, a large living room, efficient kitchen with dinette and newly remodeled bathroom, what's left to want?Furnace & A/C, water heater, floors - 2021, and bathroom remodel 2025. NO CARPET! All appliances stay. 1 car detached garage and cozy patio are added bonuses! Unbeatable location & functionality. Walking distance to grocery stores, Target, Welch's and the Library!

3. 2026-03-21
   price $203,900 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This cozy yet spacious main floor condo unit is ready to be your new home. With 2 generous sized bedrooms, a large living room, efficient kitchen with dinette and newly remodeled bathroom, what's left to want?Furnace & A/C, water heater, floors - 2021, and bathroom remodel 2025. NO CARPET! All appliances stay. 1 car detached garage and cozy patio are added bonuses! Unbeatable location & functionality. Walking distance to grocery stores, Target, Welch's and the Library!

4. 2026-02-13
   price $205,000 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This cozy yet spacious main floor condo unit is ready to be your new home. With 2 generous sized bedrooms, a large living room, efficient kitchen with dinette and newly remodeled bathroom, what's left to want?Furnace & A/C, water heater, floors - 2021, and bathroom remodel 2025. NO CARPET! All appliances stay. 1 car detached garage and cozy patio are added bonuses! Unbeatable location & functionality. Walking distance to grocery stores, Target, Welch's and the Library!

5. 2026-01-30
   listed $209,900 Active 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This cozy yet spacious main floor condo unit is ready to be your new home. With 2 generous sized bedrooms, a large living room, efficient kitchen with dinette and newly remodeled bathroom, what's left to want?Furnace & A/C, water heater, floors - 2021, and bathroom remodel 2025. NO CARPET! All appliances stay. 1 car detached garage and cozy patio are added bonuses! Unbeatable location & functionality. Walking distance to grocery stores, Target, Welch's and the Library!

6. 2025-04-30
   soldstatus $195,000 Closed 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in the desirable St. John, Indiana! Maintenance free living. 1 car detached garage. Floors, water heater, furnace, and A/C all 2021. Investors welcome!

7. 2025-04-02
   status Pending 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in the desirable St. John, Indiana! Maintenance free living. 1 car detached garage. Floors, water heater, furnace, and A/C all 2021. Investors welcome!

8. 2025-03-22
   listed $199,999 Active 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in the desirable St. John, Indiana! Maintenance free living. 1 car detached garage. Floors, water heater, furnace, and A/C all 2021. Investors welcome!

9. 2021-09-23
   soldstatus $157,000
10. 2021-07-16
    listed $169,000
11. 2013-04-15
    soldstatus $101,000
12. 2013-02-04
    listed $122,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,253 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 60.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,360
• − Property taxes: −$781
• − Insurance: −$1,014
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$5,900
• Taxable loss: −$632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Central School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1805450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $75,957
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2736
• State rank: #41 of 301 in IN

Livability — St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. John, IN
• City population: 18,509
• Population (ZIP): 18,509

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.86%
• Current HPI: 224.1176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+66.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $202,800 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $203,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $205,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $209,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Sold (MLS) $195,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-22 Listed $199,999 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-23 Sold (MLS) $157,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Listed $169,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-15 Sold (MLS) $101,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-04 Listed $122,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $781 · -22.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.